Trump and the ‘Maga’ plan end the American exception of the stock market: Wall Street suffers the greatest capital flight in its history

The first months of the Trump administration at the head of the US government are being choked on Wall Street. The market has revolved its perception of the impact that the new president will have, and now it seems that what was going to be a growth engine for the American stock market, can have the opposite effect. At least, in the short term, investors are seeing: the survey of fund managers that Bank of America has carried out, between March 7 and 13, shows the largest capital of the American stock market throughout history in a period of one month. The managers have fled in Wall Street, to approach other assets, especially the European Stock Exchange. In the background underlies the fear that a commercial war generates a global recession, and that the investment theme that made Wall Street special, the so -called ‘American exception’, has disappeared. The stagflation scenario appears on the horizon and managers again anticipate inflationist rebounds, something that did not happen since 2021.

What happened in recent weeks in the American Stock Exchange shows how quickly the market can change. Wall Street sales are being very fast in recent weeks, and the latest survey of fund managers that Bank of America prepares helps to understand the reasons.

The change of opinion of the managers with the United States Stock Exchange is being historical. The capital output that has occurred in these assets is the fastest ever seen, since the survey began to be prepared, and they leave Wall Street as the most infrageding asset at this time in the wallets of the respondents.

At the same time, pessimism for economic growth has increased in the last month at an alarming pace, so much, that it was only faster at the worst moment of the Covid-19 pandemic. Now, 63% of the managers surveyed expect the world economy to contract in the next 12 months, compared to 8% recorded last month. Besides, The expectation that there are increases in business benefits in next year is being erasedAnd again, the majority opinion is that the profits of the companies will be lower than the current ones within 12 months.

Trump’s plan dilutes the ‘American exception’

The great concern that seems to have motivated the managers to take a turn in their perspectives and their portfolios, are Donald Trump’s policies. The fear of the commercial war is great at this time, And he is taking many investors to wonder if the tariffs of the new administration, and their counterparts, will end up being negative for the first bag of the planet. If in February the commercial war was the main danger that markets face, for 40% of respondents, 55% now believe. In addition, among the main risks for investors appears a new milestone, also related to Trump’s policies: that Doge, the cutting plan that Elon Musk is carrying out, ends up generating a recession.

In the background, the great danger that appears is that of stagflation. It is the most likely macroeconomic scenario at this time, in the opinion of the respondents, ahead of the stagnation, boom scenarios or the already known ‘golden rich’. What seems clear is that Trump’s plan will be inflationary for the world economy, and it is already a net 7% of the managers surveyed who expects an increase in inflation in the next 12 months. It is a significant change, taking into account that, during the last four years the managers have always maintained the perspective that inflation would continue to fall, and this idea has just disappeared.

The turn of the managers in their perception of the US stock market is being really aggressive. So much that a clear majority of respondents already recognize that the theme of investment that put the US as the best market on the planet, for being an exceptional, unique and exemplary country, has already touched the roof. That idea, known as “the American exception”, is no longer valid for 69% of the managers surveyed, which explains the rotation of investors from Wall Street to other assets.

Despite the change of opinion of the managers, respondents continue to consider that the scenario of a soft landing of the world economy remains the most likely, although in the last month the possibility of a hard landing occurs in the last month. In this context, survey54% believe that the most likely the American bonus is maintained in the next year between 4% and 5% of expiration profitability.