02/10/2024 – 7:30
The Central Bank’s decision to increase the Brazilian basic interest rate, the Selic, by 0.25 percentage points (pp) directly impacts the yield of fixed income investments such as Tesouro Direto. In this scenario, which security is most recommended for your investment portfolio?
The answer depends on your goals and the length of time you can maintain the investment. Although the Selic bond currently has a higher yield than the IPCA+ bonds, the positions could be reversed in the long term.
+How much do I need to save per month to save R$1 million in 10, 20 or 30 years
Experts therefore indicate that investors should know the advantages and uses of each Treasury Direct title. From there, it is possible to observe your own objectives and choose the most appropriate application, with the Selic more suitable for short terms, and the IPCA+, for longer terms.
Selic Treasury brings advantages for the short term
At the moment, Treasury Selic bonds have a higher yield than IPCA+ bonds. As the name of these securities indicates, their yield is linked to the basic interest rate, currently at 10.75% per year. “This security directly benefits from this rate, resulting in a higher return”, explains capital market specialist and partner at The Hill Capital, Grazzielle Feilstrecker.
The security also has daily liquidity, that is, it can be redeemed at any time without losing its profitability. Due to its characteristics, capital market specialist and partner at Matriz Capital Jaqueline Kist recommends that you opt for the Selic Treasury for emergency reserves, short-term plans or even to maintain a guarantee margin during leveraged operations on the stock exchange. values.
Treasury Selic bonds available
Title | Annual profitability | Minimum investment | Unit Price | Maturity |
Treasury Selic 2027 | SELIC + 0.0603% | R$ 154.00 | R$ 15,400.00 | 03/01/2027 |
Treasury Selic 2029 | SELIC + 0.1390% | R$ 153.28 | R$ 15,328.76 | 03/01/2029 |
Treasury IPCA+ presents better guarantees in the long term
As you can also see from the name of the securities, IPCA+ Treasury bonds yield the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the official measure of Brazilian inflation. Furthermore, each paper has a fixed extra income, informed at the time of investment.
In recent months, IPCA+ bonds yielded less than the Treasury Selic, even with the additional fixed rate. “It underperformed because inflation remained controlled at around 4.5% in the last 12 months”, explains Feilstrecker.
However, Kist, from Matriz Capital, remembers that Brazil has a history of high inflation. She also highlights that the great dependence on commodities and the dollar-indexed economy make the country more prone to unpredictable inflationary shocks. In many moments, the IPCA yield is above the Selic.
“After the pandemic, for example, we had an accumulated inflation of 10.06% in 2021 – while the Treasury Selic paid 2% per year. In this scenario, the investor who held an IPCA + 6% bond, for example, would have a return of approximately 16%”, says Kist.
Therefore, IPCA+ is more suitable for those who want to protect their assets in the long term. Even the terms of this title support this use, with maturities up to 2065.
Unlike the Selic Treasury, the IPCA+ Treasury has liquidity only at maturity, that is, if the investor decides to redeem the amount before, he will lose all income. “Plans such as child welfare or retirement, for example, benefit greatly from this type of title,” says Kist.
However, there is the option of IPCA+ Treasury bonds with semi-annual interest, which offer a payment every six months, in addition to the yield at maturity. In other words, part of the income is paid every six months.
Kitz also highlights that currently the additional rate on the IPCA on traded securities is 6%, something that only happened 10% of the time in the last 10 years. “So we still see a favorable moment to add this protection to the portfolio”, he says.
IPCA+ Treasury Bonds available
Title | Annual profitability | Minimum investment | Unit Price | Maturity |
Treasury IPCA+ 2029 | IPCA + 6.60% | BRL 32.29 | R$ 3,229.03 | 05/15/2029 |
Treasury IPCA+ 2035 | IPCA + 6.44% | R$ 44.80 | R$ 2,240.21 | 05/15/2035 |
Treasury IPCA+ 2045 | IPCA + 6.38% | R$ 36.54 | R$ 1,218.32 | 05/15/2045 |
IPCA+ Treasury with semi-annual interest 2035 | IPCA + 6.46% | R$ 42.90 | BRL 4,290.25 | 05/15/2035 |
IPCA+ Treasury with semi-annual interest 2040 | IPCA + 6.37% | R$ 42.20 | BRL 4,220.27 | 08/15/2040 |
IPCA+ Treasury with semi-annual interest 2055 | IPCA + 6.40% | R$ 42.19 | R$ 4,219.41 | 05/15/2055 |
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