The political future of the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, will be determined by what conclusions he drew from the unrest in the country and how he plans to change his policy, said Nikita Mendkovich, a political scientist and head of the Eurasian Analytical Club. He told about this to “Lente.ru”.
Tokayev’s second term and achievements
Based on the political tradition of the East, Tokayev will try to run for a second presidential term, the political scientist is sure, although until now he has not shown any special achievements. Mendkovich considers early elections in Kazakhstan unlikely, since now they are untimely – the country is defeated, and pressing problems need to be resolved.
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At the moment, Tokayev is considering the possibility of distance himself from the figure of the previous president of the country, Nursultan Nazarbayev. Mendkovic explained why this is happening.
This is a screen version of an old Soviet joke about an unlucky commander of a military unit who has three letters. The first is to complain about youth and inexperience when discovering shortcomings, the second is to blame the predecessors, the third is to write three letters. Actually, at the moment Tokayev has already exhausted all possibilities, and it remains to either really correct the situation, or write three letters
Nikita Mendkovichpolitical scientist, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club
In his opinion, Tokayev and the entire ruling elite of Kazakhstan did not show any outstanding qualities during the pogroms. “The riots did not stop for a long time, the situation remained difficult, attempts at police measures and political concessions alternated unsuccessfully. Tokayev’s announcement about the resignation of the government only exacerbated the situation, made the radicals more active, just after that street fighting began in Alma-Ata and the burning of buildings, ”Mendkovich explained. The precondition for solving the problem was the rejection by the mass of Kazakhstanis of the actions of the radicals who plundered Alma-Ata, and the intervention of the CSTO forces, the political scientist believes.
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Public interests
The package of political reforms announced by Tokayev does not carry particularly meaningful measures, the political scientist noted. “That is, there are attempts to rectify the situation related to the prices of fuels and lubricants, but there is no awareness of fundamental problems, including the split in society, which, unfortunately, the authorities have created over the past two years,” Mendkovich explained. He clarified that he means the deterioration of relations with the Russian-speaking majority and flirting with nationalists, which largely determined the political events of recent days.
Tokayev’s political reforms are more of a response to symptoms than to the disease itself
Nikita Mendkovichpolitical scientist, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club
The five-year moratorium on raising the salaries of ministers and deputies, which Tokayev announced, according to the political scientist, will not lead to any achievements in the socio-economic sphere. The society, first of all, is interested in the country’s living standards increasing and there were no price agreements, one of which provoked the first wave of unrest.
The current elite of the state slows down the pace of Eurasian integration, the synchronization of the economic legislation of Kazakhstan with the Russian one, Mendkovich said.
Until this happens, the society of Kazakhstan is voting for European integration with its feet. Over the past five years, tens of thousands have emigrated to Russia for permanent residence, mostly Kazakhs, because they see that the standard of living in Russia is higher, and Kazakhstan now urgently needs to solve these problems.
Nikita Mendkovichpolitical scientist, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club
Who is friend and who is enemy
Tokayev has not yet touched on foreign policy issues, so it is quite difficult to predict how the attitude of neighboring countries and countries of the CSTO will change, the political scientist believes. “Despite all the past difficulties, they agreed to help him, in a difficult moment they transferred troops to the country. What the format of relations will be depends on his further actions and policy changes, ”Mendkovich said.
Meanwhile, according to the political scientist, there are prerequisites for the deterioration of relations between Kazakhstan and the West. “What we have now observed in Kazakhstan is, in principle, an attempt at a color revolution with a very clear American and British color. If, under such conditions, Kazakhstan tries to pretend that nothing happened and flirt with the United States and NATO, this will mean at least a certain immaturity of the political elite of Kazakhstan. This will create the preconditions for new incidents of this kind, ”Mendkovich is convinced.
According to the political scientist, the reaction to the riots showed who is a friend to Kazakhstan and who is an enemy. Tokayev should take this into account when shaping foreign policy, Mendkovich said.
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In early January, mass protests erupted in Kazakhstan over a sharp rise in gas motor fuel prices. The protesters soon put forward political demands, including the withdrawal from Nazarbayev’s politics. The protests escalated into riots. In different regions, government buildings were set on fire.
The current authorities linked the clashes with the attack of international terrorists and turned to the CSTO peacekeeping forces for help. Who is behind the attack is not specified, but Tokayev called the incident an attempt at a coup d’état, which had been preparing for years.
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