The crisis that has paralyzed Nicaragua since 2018 has generated one of the largest exoduses for political reasons in the region: international organizations estimate that more than 120,000 Nicaraguans have left the country fleeing from political repression, but also from the lack of opportunities that it provides. It has generated. Kevin Casas, former vice president of Costa Rica and secretary general of IDEA – an organization that promotes democracy with the advice of leaders from various parts of the world – estimates that the numbers of exiles and migrants may increase in the coming years, after Daniel Ortega was re-elected on Sunday in an electoral process considered a farce by the opposition and which has generated international rejection. Casas (San José, Costa Rica, 53 years old) assures that the pressure shown by the United States, the European Union, Chile, Peru or his own country is important, but affirms that there is no political solution at this time to end the crisis Nicaraguan. On the contrary, he says, Ortega is now less vulnerable than three years ago, when a series of social protests demanded the end of his term. Demonstrations that he broke with lead. “Ortega controls all the resources of power that allow him to remain at the point of repression,” says the former president.
Question. Following the election results on Sunday, we have seen that the European Union, the United States, Costa Rica, Peru and Chile have rejected this election, but in concrete terms, what political impact does this have for the Nicaraguan regime?
Answer. A message with that level of unanimity carries weight, and I think it accentuates the situation of political isolation in which Ortega finds himself in the region, but the concrete impact remains to be seen. In real terms, the capacity of the international community to press for a change in the internal political dynamics of Nicaragua that leads to a political opening to achieve a political negotiation is very limited. That is important not to lose sight of. I believe that this gesture of rejection is very important from a symbolic point of view, but the international community does not have a magic wand to force the Ortega regime to negotiate with the opposition.
P. On Sunday, four former Latin American presidents demanded the expulsion of Nicaragua from the OAS. An assembly is scheduled for next week in Guatemala. Do you think that within the OAS this message will fall through and stronger measures will be taken against the Ortega regime?
R. It is important to generate the signal that the Inter-American Democratic Charter and the principles it embodies still have a breath of life, that they still matter. What would be terrible is to send the message that the Inter-American Democratic Charter, which is really one of the summits of the process of democratic construction in Latin America, has simply become dead paper. The message must be given that the elections in Nicaragua are clearly illegitimate, although it is not clear what the region’s reaction will be. I add something else: let us not forget that in 2018 the Ortega regime violently repressed with a balance of more than 300 deaths and not even that was able to generate a concerted action on the part of the countries of the region. I’m not sure that clearly indefensible results are going to make a difference.
P. It seems that Ortega is aware of this and does not care much about what is said at the Latin American level of his regime.
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R. The only possibility that a character like Ortega feels that he is paying you a price is perhaps through the imposition of economic sanctions. The problem, of course, is that the imposition of this type of sanctions on a country in the state of economic vulnerability in which Nicaragua is, particularly in the context of the covid, is problematic, because the imposition of measures of this type would have consequences humanitarian that nobody wants to generate. That includes the only country that can really have a significant impact in terms of economic sanctions, which is the United States. Washington will not want to generate a humanitarian crisis in Nicaragua that would aggravate the complex migration problem that it is already trying to manage in northern Central America.
P. Nicaraguans sent a clear message of repudiation by not participating in the electoral process, what other options do they have in the face of a regime that has planted itself in repression?
R. I have no doubt that the situation in the country is distressing, but it is not clear that there is an easily achievable political solution in Nicaragua at this time. That does not mean that the international community should not put into motion all the resources it has to put pressure on the Nicaraguan regime, but this is a situation that will ultimately be resolved in Nicaragua and we hope it will be resolved peacefully. It seems to me, to make the subject very clear, that the position of the Ortega regime is less vulnerable today than it was in the midst of the social protests of 2018.
P. Despite the fact that it does not have internal legitimacy? The polls give him the support of only 19% of the population.
R. The internal support situation has decreased, but this is not the fundamental data. The fundamental fact is that Ortega controls all the resources of power that allow him to remain at the point of repression.
P. What do five more years of Daniel Ortega’s government represent for Central America?
R. One of the things that we have seen not only in Nicaragua, but also in Venezuela, is that there is a phenomenon that has not been paid enough attention, which is the greater ease that people have to leave their countries with globalization . An escape valve has been created for authoritarian regimes like Ortega’s. What will almost certainly end up happening in the case of Nicaragua is an exodus to neighboring countries and the United States. And that, far from becoming a problem for Ortega, becomes a lifeline, as it has been in the case of Venezuela with the departure of six million Venezuelans in the last 6 years. It is a favorable resource for Nicolás Maduro, because those people in a different situation would be in the streets demonstrating against the calamity that is occurring in their country. What is happening is that people vote with their feet and leave, so migration becomes an escape valve for authoritarian regimes: not only does it take people off the streets, but they also send remittances.
P. That puts more pressure on countries like Costa Rica, in the case of Nicaraguans.
P. It seems to me that what we are going to see almost certainly in the near future is an increase in the migratory flow of Nicaraguans to neighboring countries, mainly to Costa Rica.
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