Can space become the next battlefield? This question, which for decades was typical of science fiction, has become a strategic concern in the world’s main powers. Since the creation of the US Space Force in 2019, the idea that space is a key confrontational terrain for the future has been consolidated. China and Russia, in particular, have accelerated their efforts to compete for orbital dominance, as the United States seeks to maintain its hegemony in an increasingly hostile environment.
Space, which has now been a platform for scientific cooperation and exploration, is now emerging as the new geopolitical board. Controlling satellites, securing key areas such as Lagrange points, and protecting critical communications have become priorities. But, How does a war evolve in an environment where there are no borders or clear rules? And more importantly, what implications does it have for security on Earth?
This could be the first space war
in the magazine Popular Mechanics They have asked themselves the question of what the first space war will be like and have turned to experts and existing documentation to investigate it. The result is that it would have four very marked phases, and for many we are already entering the first.
The relationship between space and terrestrial security is intrinsic in the digital age. Satellites support GPS navigation systems to military communications, weather predictions and financial transactions. For the United States, this infrastructure is essential. However, this dependency also exposes you to enormous risks.
China and Russia, aware of this vulnerability, have developed anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities. with the aim of blinding and disorienting their adversaries in the event of conflict. These strategies include using missiles to destroy satellites in low orbit, deploying co-orbitals capable of sabotaging critical systems, and employing laser weapons to disable sensors on spy satellites.
Events and disputes that could be key: Kessler Syndrome and Lagrange Points
Russia’s recent anti-satellite test in 2021, which generated thousands of fragments in orbithighlighted the potential consequences of these operations. These types of incidents could trigger the so-called Kessler syndrome, where space debris creates a chain reaction that makes low Earth orbits inoperableaffecting all countries equally.
That, along with the dispute over the Lagrange points, could be key to triggering a space war. These points are places in space where the gravitational forces of two massive bodies, such as the Sun and a planet, find a balance, making it easier for a low-mass object (such as a spacecraft or an asteroid) to orbit there.
The 4 phases of space war
Experts have outlined a possible path towards space conflict, divided into several phases:
Phase I: War in low orbit
In this first stage, the confrontation focuses on neutralizing enemy satellites. An ASAT attack could disable GPS satellite constellations, depriving the adversary of its navigation, communication and surveillance capabilities. Russia and China have already demonstrated capabilities to carry out these operations. The United States, although it also has these tools, faces a structural problem: it depends on its satellites much more than its rivals.
A critical point in this phase is the creation of “bodyguard” satellites. These devices would be deployed next to strategic satellites to protect them from physical or electronic attacks. Although this solution is not foolproof, it could provide sufficient time to mitigate damage and allow for a coordinated response.
Phase II: Domination of strategic areas
Beyond low orbit, Lagrange points—gravitationally stable areas between the Earth and the Moon—represent key locations. These points allow the placement of telescopes and permanent space stations. Controlling these areas could provide both scientific and military advantages, facilitating long-range operations and permanent surveillance.
China has already announced ambitions in this regard, planning missions that allow it to strategically position itself in lunar orbit. Russia, for its part, has strengthened its space cooperation with China, lining up for future interplanetary projects.
Phase III: Active Militarization
At this point, the conflict would not be limited to the deactivation of satellites, but would involve manned or autonomous space vehicles. The United States experimented with this idea after 9/11, exploring the use of suborbital aircraft for rapid deployment operations in difficult-to-reach areas. Although these projects did not come to fruition, their concept remains alive, with SpaceX leading technological developments that could make them viable.
Phase IV: Defense against hypersonic weapons
The proliferation of hypersonic missiles adds another layer of complexity. These weapons, capable of maneuvering at extreme speeds, are almost impossible to intercept with traditional systems. Here, low-orbit satellites could serve as a first line of defense, detecting and neutralizing these threats before they enter the atmosphere.
Is there technology for something like this?
Technological development will be the determining factor in this race. China leads in areas such as quantum communications, a breakthrough that could ensure secure communications and intercept enemy signals. ANDUnited States, although more advanced in private innovation thanks to companies like SpaceXfaces its own problems in integrating these technologies into its military strategy.
Artificial intelligence (AI) will also play an important role. In a space war scenario, decision speed will be key, and autonomous systems could operate without the need for direct human intervention. This includes everything from space drones to laser-based defense systems.
The move toward space war raises important ethical questions. How to establish clear rules in an environment where there are no national borders? Is it possible to develop international treaties that limit the militarization of space? Despite previous agreements, such as the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, loopholes on issues such as the use of offensive weapons in orbit persist, leaving space a geopolitical “wilderness.”
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