Hello! Today I look at what the polls say in the United Kingdom after its last government crisis.
Only six years have passed since the Brexit vote, but since then the British have had five prime ministers, all Conservatives: David Cameron, who resigned after the referendum; Theresa May (ruled three years), Boris Johnson (two years), Liz Truss (six weeks) and the newly appointed Rishi Sunak.
These have been turbulent times in the country, and they will continue to be so if we pay attention to the polls. Look at the graph with the evolution of the polls throughout 2022:
- Conservative Party support has collapsed. If in the 2019 elections they won with 43.6% of the votes, now they do not reach 23% in the polls. The Conservatives have been behind the Labor Party since 2021, and took a first step back in June with the resignation of Boris Johnson, but their catastrophe came in September, with Liz Truss already in office, after the announcement of a tax cut which was poorly received by the markets.
- At the same time, Labor has soared to 52%. That is to say, that the crisis on the right has not translated into a great rise of the Liberals or of Reform – the old Brexit Party -, but of the left.
Clearly the Conservative electorate is upset: according to YouGov data, Of the people who voted for the party in 2019 and who now declare some intention to vote, only 53% choose the Conservatives again. It’s lousy fidelity. Another 13% would vote for Reform and up to 22% say they would vote for Labor.
All these numbers bode well for the Labor Party, but there is a reason for them to remain cautious: recent history.
In 2019, the Conservatives came back from even worse polls than now. You can see it in the following graph. In June of that year, the Conservative Party fell to 22% in the polls, after May’s resignation and in the middle of the Brexit negotiation, when four parties appeared practically tied. However, just six months later, Boris Johnson won the election for the Conservatives.
Although the UK has been on a slide since 2015, the Conservatives can say that come elections they have always managed to rise, ending up winning in 2015, 2017 and 2019. But there is a difference this time: Labor has never been stronger than it is now. . It is the main novelty. The last crises of the Conservatives coincided with upturns of the Liberals, UKIP or the Brexit party, but this time the leap forward has been made by the left.
These days the Labor Party exceeds 50% of the vote in the polls, something they have not achieved since the time of Tony Blair, the last Labor party to win an election in the United Kingdom, 17 years ago.
🏔 2. We have to rewrite the history of the 14 ‘eight thousand’
44 people were supposed to have climbed the highest mountains on the planet, but a recent study has revealed that only three actually stepped on all the summits. As Óscar Gogorza recounts, the rest made a mistake with some peak: the mountaineers really believed that they were at the top of the mountain, they photographed themselves and descended, but they were not where they thought they were.
The researchers behind the new study have scrupulously reviewed the images to verify each ascent. They have found many bugs. Most would have been wrong on Manaslu, whose actual summit is hidden from view. The Spaniard Alberto Iñurrategi is one of those who would not have reached that summit, but he is elegant: “I remember that we followed the ridge and at one point it descended and there was no higher point to be seen. We were convinced that this was the top, but after seeing the study it seems that it was not, it is clear that we were wrong.
It’s fun to wonder if this matters: what difference does it make if someone stayed 10 meters from the ceiling? The challenge is just as enormous and it is practically achieved. But reaching these peaks only has a symbolic value and symbols do not understand logic.
The review, by the way, can reopen the race for a milestone. “There is no woman who has really been to the 14 peaks, the challenge is still open.”
🌍 3. Opinions in a geopolitical year
Some data caught my attention. this study by the BBVA Foundationa survey of 21,000 people from 10 countries, on geopolitical issues in one geopolitical year.
- The Spaniards who believe that NATO is quite or very important for the security of Spain have risen from 65% to 77% in this 2022. In the less Atlanticist countries, the rise is even greater: in France the group goes from 52% to 72% and in Sweden from 56% to 70%.
- Should the US get involved in Europe’s security? Those who say that they should do it a lot or a lot rise in Spain from 60% to 71%; in France, from 55% to 60%; and in Sweden, from 45% to 72% (!). The only ones who now have more doubts are the Americans: they go from 70% to 67%.
📆 4. An invitation: See you in THE COUNTRY?
In the newspaper we organize some exclusive meetings between journalists and subscribers of EL PAÍS, which in this newsletter you are all, and I have been asked to star in the next one.
- It will be on Thursday, November 10 and the plan is simple: they show you the writing and then we chat for a while in person. We can talk about journalism, about ‘think clear‘ and whatever you want.
I feel very honored and I hope it will be fun for everyone. If you feel like it, sign up here to get a place.
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