More than 6.6 million Andalusians are called to the polls next 19J and while the campaign progresses, the polls follow one another. In order to offer a general vision of the political situation in the upcoming elections, this article has compiled the polls published since the last electoral appointment, in December 2018, and a weighted average has been made that shows the tendency of the intention to vote up to the current moment.
There are 109 seats at stake and the trend in the polls is clear: the PP continues to lead in terms of voting intentions and with the possibility of winning the Andalusian elections with a margin that allows it to get rid of VOX. Juanma Moreno, current regional president, is presented in the polls as the winner of an election in which the Socialists, after winning in the last elections and losing the Government against the convergence of the right, risk a historic defeat. With C’s following the national trail that marked minimums in the Catalan elections and in Castilla y León and the unstructured left, the Andalusian scenario appears decisive for the national board. Without even ruling out a possible repetition of the appointment with the polls.
This calculation, which groups and weights the surveys according to their results, the date of the field study and the size of the sample, predicts that the socialist Juan Espadas plays in a complicated scenario. The intention to vote for the PSOE has been on the decline since 2020. In fact, the last CIS shows a transfer of ballots of 11% to the PP.
To the left of the Socialists, the division of Adelante Andalucía into two coalitions -with Teresa Rodríguez outside the core of Podemos and Inmaculada Nieto as her main enemy- is not showing good results.
With this, the polls dilute the possibility of an alternative majority to the PP government, in which those of VOX with Macarena Olona seek to continue the upward trend, being able to duplicate the results of their predecessor. Finally, the current vice president of the Board, Juan Marín, faces a prediction that could leave the oranges without their own group in the Andalusian Parliament.
Methodology
The goal of a poll aggregator is to get a general trend of what the political landscape is like at a particular time based on the results of the polls published at that time.
The model used hereby collects
published polls since the last elections to the Andalusian Parliament and is weighted in terms of five criteria: the average deviation of the results of all the polls, the average deviation of the results of the last elections, the size of the sample and the days remaining and elapsed between one election to another.
Once a value has been assigned for each type of weighting for each survey, all the values obtained are averaged to assign a total weighting, which constitutes the weight that will be assigned to each survey in the weighted average.
The fact that the most recent surveys have greater weight speeds up the model’s ability to record trend changes. To avoid sudden variations due to the limited volume of surveys, especially in the first part of the legislature, the daily average takes into account the data of the previous 30 days.
#Andalusian #elections #approaching #polls