China threatens violence, Taiwan remains calm. But how well prepared is the country for an attack? Visit to a defense trade fair in Taipei.
Taipei – Captain Lin Hsin-yu stands in front of the model of a “Mirage 2000” and goes into raptures. The French fighter jet flies excellently, says the Taiwanese pilot, much better than the Americans’ F-16 or the domestically produced “Ching-kuo” fighter-bomber. The acceleration, the controls, everything is great. The machines have a few years under their belt. As early as the mid-1990s, Taiwan began purchasing 60 “Mirage” from the French manufacturer Dassault. Now several of them are to be brought technically up to date. This is also urgently needed, says Lin. Because China – Lin speaks of the “enemy” – is becoming more and more aggressive, and if Beijing sends dozens of fighter jets into Taiwan’s air defense zone again, the machines will be needed as a deterrent.
A Saturday morning in September: While the temperature outside is approaching 30 degrees, crowds of people are pushing through an exhibition hall in the east of Taipei. After a four-year break, the “Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Expo” is taking place again in Taiwan’s capital for the first time. According to the organizers, it is the largest edition to date, with around 280 exhibitors attending. They present drones, machine guns, anti-aircraft missiles.
“China has changed. That’s why Taiwan has to change too.”
The Taiwanese Ministry of Defense stand, where Captain Lin patiently answers visitors’ questions in front of the “Mirage” model, takes up the most space. The ministry shows here what it has in its depots and hangars. This is of course a message to China, which sees Taiwan as a breakaway province that should be united with the mainland by force if necessary. But also to our own people: Look, we are prepared.
The message seems to be getting through. Anyone who speaks to the visitors to the defense trade fair feels a mixture of pride and defiance: Let them come, the Chinese! Hardly anyone here is afraid of an invasion. “We have been living with the threat from China for decades,” says a man in a “Top Gun” T-shirt. He rushes from stand to stand with his son to collect stickers for a scrapbook. A defense fair as leisure fun. In general, the Taiwanese seem to stand behind their military. At the end of last year, the government decided to triple the length of compulsory military service from four to twelve months – a move that, depending on the survey, 70 to 85 percent of people support.
Before Tsai Ing-wen moved into Taiwan’s presidential palace in 2016, defense was not a priority for the government, explains Sheu Jyh-Shyang of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a think tank that sees itself as independent but is funded by the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense becomes. Things are different today – also because China under state and party leader Xi Jinping is increasing its rhetoric towards Taiwan. “China has changed. That’s why Taiwan has to change too,” says Sheu at a meeting in the heavily secured institute in Taipei’s government district. But he doesn’t believe in an imminent attack; China’s People’s Liberation Army is not yet well prepared for that. US experts see it similarly.
“It must never get to the point where Xi Jinping says: Today is the day.”
Taiwan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Roy Lee also doesn’t believe that China will get serious any time soon. “If you were Xi Jinping, you would balance the costs and benefits. “I think war would be the most expensive option,” Lee said at a meeting at Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry. “And it would be the least safe option. You can win or lose a war – or you get stuck, like Russia, and can’t get out.” Nevertheless, Taiwan is “of course preparing for the worst case,” explains Lee. “It must never get to the point where Xi Jinping wakes up one day and says: Today is the day.”
For military expert Sheu, deterrence means: Taiwan must rely on a “mixture of classic and asymmetrical warfare”. On the one hand, fighter jet against fighter jet in order to retain air supremacy in the event of war. Not only are the French “Mirage” being modernized, the American F-16 is also receiving an upgrade. 66 new F-16Vs are also to be delivered to Taiwan in the next few years, for around eight billion dollars. For military expert Sheu, an order for 108 American Abrams tanks, which are to be delivered from 2024, is also part of the arsenal of the classic war strategy. In 2027, Taiwan also wants to commission at least two domestically developed submarines.
Many experts, especially from the USA, consider asymmetrical warfare to be even more important. Why does Taiwan need expensive tanks when China’s air force can take them out within hours? “We have no real chance in a symmetrical conflict with China,” said Taiwan’s former army chief Lee Hsi-min in March. “The fact is: We cannot compete with the much larger People’s Liberation Army missile for missile, ship for ship or plane for plane.”
“Porcupine” strategy: Taiwan must make itself impregnable
Experts speak of a “porcupine strategy” that Taiwan must pursue. This means that the island state with its almost 24 million inhabitants must acquire “spines” in order to become impregnable to the huge China. Expert Sheu cites tetrapods on the beach, which made it difficult for China’s navy to land on the Taiwanese coast, as well as anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles as examples. But food and energy stocks would also have to be increased in order to be able to hold out longer in the event of a Chinese blockade. In a defense report published at the beginning of September, Taiwan’s government gave a lot of space to this asymmetrical warfare and spoke of a “David versus Goliath battle”. Deputy Foreign Minister Lee says: “This is what the Ukraine war taught us: Size is not what matters.”
What is more important, says defense expert Sheu, is “whether the USA and the West support us”. He recalls that US President Biden has promised four times to intervene militarily if China launches an attack on Taiwan. In addition, America has been supplying the Taiwanese with weapons for decades. For the United States, its own credibility is at stake, but so is the supply of microchips, more than 90 percent of the most advanced models of which come from Taiwan.
USA supplies weapons to China
This year, for the first time, exhibitors from the USA are also represented at the defense trade fair in Taipei – including the manufacturers Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin, which China wants to impose sanctions on because of their arms sales to Taiwan. Europe, on the other hand, is having difficulty providing military support for Taiwan. “We have a great interest in German weapon systems,” says Sheu.
From the Federal Republic you can only find one drone producer from Gilching near Munich in the spacious hall in Taipei. Its representative explains that the aircraft can be used not only for military purposes, but also for civil purposes – which makes export to Taiwan much easier. Rheinmetall is also represented in Taipei – with a device that is used to start aircraft engines. That’s not much. Yes, says expert Sheu, there is hope for the West. At the same time, you plan to be alone in an emergency.
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