Experts from Great Britain are drawing up scenarios of how the pandemic could develop in the coming months. The results can also be transferred to Germany.
London – Little by little it seems as if the corona pandemic is losing its terror. The omicron wave seems to have broken in Germany. And the federal government announced a gradual relaxation of the protective measures up to the so-called “Freedom Day” on March 20th. Then almost all the rules that are currently in force should fall. These developments raise the question of whether it will all be over by March 20th. Will the pandemic end then? How’s the summer going? A panel of experts from Great Britain (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, SAGE) developed four scenarios for their country in response to this question. But the Results can also be interesting for Germany.
End of the corona pandemic: Four parameters for assessing new variants
That Corona will completely disappear from our lives will not happen. The scientists agree on that. They expect further corona waves in the coming months and years. However, to a lesser extent. To set up the four possible scenarios for development over the next twelve to 18 months, the experts use four parameters to evaluate new variants:
- portability
- Immune Escape
- intrinsic severity (theoretical severity of the variant)
- realized severity (actual severity of the variant in the population)
These parameters are divided into three color categories for evaluation: “lower, i.e. better” (green), “stable” (orange), “higher, i.e. worse” (red). The four possible scenarios result from the composition of the colors.
Four scenarios: best case, optimistic, pessimistic, worst case
In variant 1 “Best Case Scenario” There are other corona variants, but their transmissibility will not increase and infections will no longer lead to severe courses. Vaccination protection is maintained and booster vaccinations may only be necessary for vulnerable groups. The prognosis is that only small waves are to be expected in autumn and winter, which do not bring serious illnesses with them.
Scenario two is that “optimistic scenario”. It is characterized by waves of infection and cycles of good and bad years. In bad years, the transmissibility and intrinsic severity could be similar to Delta. But: “Increasing global immunity leads to a generally lower realized degree of severity,” the experts write. There are still severe courses, but these would only affect pre-ill, older people and people without immune protection. Depending on the good or bad year, booster vaccinations could be necessary for all groups or only for vulnerable groups.
The experts’ forecast for autumn and winter is that seasonal waves of infection similar to the current omicron wave are looming.
- Scenario 1 “Best case”: transferability = consistent, immune escape = lower, i.e. better, intrinsic severity = consistent, realized severity = lower, i.e. better
- Scenario 2 “optimistic”: transferability = constant, immune escape = constant, intrinsic severity = constant, realized severity = lower, i.e. better
- Scenario 3 “pessimistic”: transferability = higher, i.e. worse, immune escape = higher, i.e. worse, intrinsic severity = constant, realized severity = constant
- Scenario 4 “Worst Case”: Transmissibility = higher, i.e. worse, immune escape = higher, i.e. worse, intrinsic severity = higher, i.e. worse, realized severity = higher, i.e. worse
Four scenarios: Two more optimistic and two more pessimistic variants
The prospects for the third scenario are somewhat worse “pessimistic scenario”. A high global incidence and increasing immunity of the population make the emergence of new variants unpredictable. These can then be as bad as delta in terms of severity. Nevertheless, vaccinations still offer good protection against severe courses. Annually updated vaccines could then have to be given to all population groups to avoid overloading the health system.
The forecast of the experts for autumn and winter in the “pessimistic scenario”: A worrying variant leads to a large wave of infections. Serious illnesses and deaths, however, remain concentrated in vulnerable groups.
As the name suggests, scenario number four is the “Worst case”. Due to a high global incidence and incomplete vaccinations, new variants repeatedly appear. Unpredictable changes in the mutations can change the rate, age profile, severity and death. Annual vaccinations would then be necessary for everyone.
The forecast for autumn and winter also looks bleak in this scenario. The experts see a large wave of infections with infections and severe courses in large parts of the population. It could then be particularly bad for vulnerable groups and people who have not been vaccinated.
Four scenarios: This is how the experts estimate the probability
The experts leave open which of these scenarios we now have to prepare for. Information on long-term developments is also missing. Over the years, however, a “relatively stable, repeating pattern” should set in. Moreover, according to the British experts, these four scenarios are not the only possible ones. A time shift from one scenario to another could also be possible.
Since Great Britain was always a few weeks ahead of Germany in the development of the pandemic, these four scenarios could also be of interest here.
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