MEXICO CITY 21-Dec-2022 .- The Government of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador offered grow at 4 percent per year and close with 6 percent.
However, if the expectations of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) are met, the national economy will have this six-year average annual growth of 0.3 percentthe lowest rate of the last six Administrations.
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Analysts point out that one of the main causes of the economic stagnation del País to the uncertainty generated by the governance of the Morenista Administration.
Thus, the result of the six-year term that ends in 2024 would only be greater than that registered in the Government of PRI member Miguel de la Madrid Hurtadofrom 1982 to 1988when the average annual advance was 0.06 percent.
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Although the covid-19 pandemic affected the Mexican economy, since 2019 it was already showing a decline, largely due to the uncertainty generated by the cancellation of the New Mexico International Airport (NAIM), said Gabriela Siller, director of Economic Analysis of Banco Base.
In addition, during 2020 there was no implementation of a support tax policyas a deferral of the payment of taxes so that companies could overcome the crisis generated by the pandemic and, although this caused Mexico not to borrow more, it generated a GDP drophe remembered.
The specialists consulted for the Banxico expectations survey consider that the three main factors that could hinder the economic growth are the governance, inflation and external conditions.
At a particular level, the public insecurity problems.
Additionally, the gross fixed investment it has not grown to its full potential as a result of governance uncertainty, Siller added.
“It has not been an internal engine of growth, rather it has slowed down the economy; the impulse of the Mexican economy has come from abroad, from exports, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and remittances,” he mentioned.
Although the Foreign direct investment could have been from 50 billion dollars this year, it is estimated that it will reach only 37 billion dollarsdue to the outflow of capital generated by uncertainty.
Besides, Base Bank points out that if the per capita economic growth of the country is analyzed based on the forecasts of the central bank, in the six-year term of López Obrador there will be a contraction of 4.2 percentthe second largest drop, behind the one reported in the De la Madrid administration, which was 7.9 percent.
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