It is presumed that they may be a plus, if not the key, to win or at least be more competitive in the province of Buenos Aires in the battle against him. Front of All. A new survey I ask who should be the allies of Together for Change for these elections 2021 and above, glued, were the three: Facundo Manes, Margaret Stolbizer Y Jose Luis Espert.
The study that approached in this particular way the path towards the PASO, when little more than two months until that first milestone at the polls, It is Opinion. It is a pioneering consultancy in online measurements, with very good forecasts in the 2015 and 2017 elections and that, in 2019, like the rest of the pollsters, was far behind. With clients in politics and business, he now works -among others- for the Buenos Aires government.
Every month, the firm spreads its “Citizen Thermometer”. Between June 14 and 28, he relieved 1,800 cases across the country and Clarion accessed the results report. To start, a summary of the main conclusions is made:
The economist José Luis Esper, during a talk last year. For now, it goes outside of JxC in Province. (Photo: Cristian Fuertes)
– “The positive evaluation of Alberto Fernández’s management stabilizes, maintaining the 42% approval rate registered the previous month.”
– “The country’s agenda of problems continues to be headed by socioeconomic issues, inflation, poverty and unemployment, followed by corruption and insecurity. Among JxC voters, concern about corruption is heightened, while among ruling party voters the The focus is on poverty. Both electorates, however, share their concern about inflation. “
Margarita Stolbizer, last January. Negotiate to go on the Manes list. (Photo: Lucía Merle)
– “Perceptions about the progress and evolution of the economy seem to have stopped their decline, giving the Government a break. Despite registering a growth in favorable expectations, 69% of Argentines say that the current economic situation is negative” .
– “There are no significant changes in the image of the main leaders. As in the last measurements, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and María Eugenia Vidal are the two best positioned politicians, with a favorable image balance.”
Allies and tough vs. moderate in JxC.
In the electoral chapter, the numbers of Together for Change unfold in different ways:
– At the country level, Opinaia attributes 26% of the intention to vote, in a tie with the Frente de Todos.
– In the Province, JxC is six points below the ruling party (24% to 30%).
– And in the City, it prevails by 18 (35% to 17%).
Then the consulting firm addresses what are known as electoral “floors” and “ceilings”. And Together for the Change is even with the ruling party.
The main opposition alliance combines 23% of “surely would vote” (floor), plus 30% of “could get to vote” (53% of ceiling) and a rejection of 47% (“would never vote”). Against 25% (“surely …”) / 22% (“could …”) / 53% (“never …”) of the Frente de Todos.
Next come, perhaps, the most interesting pictures of the study. Or at least the finest on the opponent’s armed forces. First, do a I raise about hard and moderate. And the latter clearly win.
In this way, he investigates 53% who said they would surely vote or could vote for the opposition: “Suppose there was a first election, STEP, within Together for Change. Who would you vote for?
– 47% chose “a list made up of Rodríguez Larreta, Vidal and Lousteau”, the dialogue variant.
– 30%, to “a list made up of Macri, Bullrich and Pichetto”, the toughest anti-Ks.
– Completed 23% of “don’t know”.
As for possible allies, ask: “Which of the following political leaders should Together for Change join?”. The answers could be multiple. That is, you could choose several at the same time. And they were ordered like this:
1st Facundo Manes 28%.
2nd Margaret Stolbizer 27%.
3rd Jose Luis Espert 25%.
4th Roberto Lavagna 2. 3%.
5th Juan Schiaretti 19%.
6th Ricardo Lopez Murphy 17%.
7th Florencio Randazzo 16%.
8th Juan Manuel Urtubey 14%.
– None 27%
The immediate doubt. Can these leaders be opposition allies for these elections?
– Manes has already announced that he will compete for the Buenos Aires intern Juntos por el Cambio, anchored in radicalism.
– Stolbizer negotiates with Manes to share list. It is said that she could go second on an eventual ballot.
– Espert had advanced in an agreement with Macri, Larreta and Patricia Bullrich to also enter that opposition STEP, but due to the resistance of some sectors, for now he is still out and would be a candidate with his own party.
– Lavagna, Urtubey and Randazzo share the same armed Peronism no K, but only the former Minister of Transport announced for now that he will run in the province of Buenos Aires.
– Schiaretti heads his own local army, in Córdoba, outside of Kirchnerism and as a rival of JxC.
– López Murphy, meanwhile, has almost agreed to join the Juntos por el Cambio intern, with his own list in the City.