Mexico City (Sarai Cervantes) – The global economic recovery and inflation contribute to the fact that the demand for air freight transportation go down.
Humberto López, director of air traffic at Eternity México, said that in the second quarter of the year the volume of air cargo fell 18 percent, a trend that is expected to continue in 2023.
The air cargo returns to 2019 levelsprior to the pandemic, due to the closures in some cities in China due to the omicron variant and the war between Ukraine and Russia.
“Inflation also plays an important role because it forces people to change their consumption habits of unnecessary goods for a basic food basket and fuel,” he said.
In 2020 and 2021, the e-commerce it was a trigger for air cargo, he added. However, he pointed out that since the second quarter there has been a contraction in volume.
Technology merchandise, perishables, high-value finished products, electronics, and those sold through e-commerce are the ones that have fallen the most in demand for air transportation.
“In 2021 we saw high rates, but in 2022 they are low, despite the rise in fuel, inflation and interest rates,” he said.
For example, on the China-Mexico route, rates are offered between five and six dollars per kilo of cargo, while last year they were between 10 and 12 dollars.
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IATA forecast that in 2023 the markets will be under greater pressure in air cargo and revenues will be 149.4 billion dollars, 52 billion less than this year, but 48.6 billion more than in 2019.
“With economic uncertainty, cargo volumes are expected to decline to 57.7 million tons, from a peak of 65.6 million tons in 2021,” he estimated.
Likewise, IATA expects a 22.6 percent drop in cargo yields, mainly in the last part of the year, when the impact of inflation is expected to be stronger.
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