Numerous questions have begun to emerge since the news that the UN has first activated the planetary security protocol for asteroid 2024 YR4. One of them is in the event that the worst scenario is fulfilled, which areas are most possibilities to be affected. In that sense, it should be noted that There is a 1.2% probability that the asteroid clashes against the Earth on December 22, 2032. And this celestial body was classified at level 3 of the Turin Impact Scale by the International Asteroid Warning Network, which is a system that measures the danger of asteroids on a scale from 0 to 10.
He was first sighted on December 27, 2024 by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. And using their brightness as a reference, scientists have calculated that It is between 40 and 90 meters wide. It was on New Year’s Eve when Kelly Fast, an interim planetary defense officer at the Nasa American space agency, received the report indicating that it was an object that generated concern. «You receive observations, then disappear again. This seemed to have the potential to remain », declared AFP.
A global monitoring
In that sense, The international community is turning closely to continue its trajectory. The international asteroid alert network (IAWN), and the United Nations Space Missions Advisory Group (SMPAG), together with NASA and ESA are some of the most prominent.
«The main objective of the SMPAG is to prepare an international response to a threat raised by an object close to the Earth through the exchange of information, the development of options for collaborative research and mission opportunities, and carry out planning activities for the mitigation of mitigation of neo threats (objects whose orbits approach the earth in a dangerous way) », point out in a release.
Among the solutions that are being studied to face it, we talk about A kinetic impactor. Andy Rivkin, from the Laboratory of Applied Physics of the Johns Hopkins University, explained as an example to the BBC that it is a very simple idea. “You hit the spacecraft against the object that worries you, and use the mass and speed of your spacecraft to slightly change the orbit of that object enough so that the earth does not touch,” he explained.
But to avoid unnecessary alarmisms Betts has claimed AFP that “the probabilities are very good that not only will not hit the earth, but, at some point in the coming months or years, that probability will reach zero.”
‘Cities Killer’: Affected places
This asteroid has been pruned the ‘cities murderer’, Betts explained that “if you put it on Paris or London or New York, the entire city and some around the surroundings.” By 2024 YR4, an aerial detonation point that it would be equivalent to about eight TNT megatons, More than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima pump. In case of falling on the ocean, it could cause a tsunami if it falls in an area near the coast.
Impact risk corridor for the approach of 2032
And experts have calculated that Possible impact sites include The east of the Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabic Sea and the southern Asia. And potentially affected countries could be: Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Sudan and Ethiopia.
The asteroid will make your next approach to Earth approximately December 17, 2028which will allow astronomers to make additional observations and extend the observation arch for four years.
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