The Valencian Community, Murcia, Catalonia and Madrid will be the four regions that will say goodbye to 2024 at the head of their GDP deficit, which the majority of the autonomous communities will incur, according to the latest forecasts from the Foundation for Studies of Applied Economics (Fedea).
Following these estimates, nine of the 17 communities will end 2024 with a negative GDP balance: Valencian Community (-1.8%), Murcia (-1.6%), Catalonia (-0.7%), Madrid (-0.5%), Castilla-La Mancha (-0.3% ), Basque Country (-0.3%), Andalusia (-0.3%), Extremadura (-0.1%) and Castilla y León (-0.1%).
On the contrary, eight communities will close the year with a positive balance: Asturias (1.2%), Canary Islands (0.9%), Navarra (0.7%), Cantabria (0.7%), Balearic Islands (0.6%), Galicia (0.4%), La Rioja (0.3%) and Aragón (0.1%).
Fedea points this out in a new issue of its Fiscal and Financial Observatory of the CCAAled by José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, Manuel Díaz and Carmen Marín, who analyze regional income and expenses until July of this year and make a estimation of the regional budget balance at the end of the year.
In general terms, Fedea estimates that The deficit of the autonomous communities will end the year at 0.4% of GDPabove the negative balance of 0.3% forecast by the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIRef) and much higher than the Government’s forecasts for budget balance, of 0%.
“If our forecast is confirmed, it would not only be bad data given the growth in resources that the regions have had in 2024, more than 20,000 million from the Autonomous Financing System (SFA) compared to 2023, but it would put at risk the deficit reduction path of all Public Administrations announced by the Government for this year,” he warns.
And he maintains that with the new fiscal rules of the European Union for next year, “fiscal consolidation in Spain cannot be delayed any longer.” “It should be one of the main tasks that the Government of Spain must face”something for which “the participation of the CCAA should be fundamental, given that this administration accounts for the majority of public consumption,” he indicates.
However, Fedea specifies that its estimate for the end of this year represents an “improvement” compared to the end of 2023, when the regional deficit was 0.9% of GDP.
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