Glasgow is already almost half way there. The leaders are home. Now it comes down to ministers and officials. Do they come to an agreement? Or are the talks doomed to fail because there is no room for cooperation within the current geopolitical constellation, in which Russia, China and the US are hostile to each other?
The last major multilateral agreements, such as those of the Paris climate agreement, date from 2015. And ‘Paris’ was nothing more than a declaration of intent. A real breakthrough was the agreement about the ozone layer, but it dates back to 1987.
The world has been talking about the climate for thirty years now. And yet emissions continue to rise. Shortly after the establishment in 1988 of the IPCC, the scientific climate panel of the UN, the Berlin Wall fell. Nothing seemed to stand in the way of a happy, Western-style world – prosperous, democratic, environmentally conscious. Then why has the world wasted thirty years?
I hit it From Wall to Wall – world politics since 1989 after. This autumn, the Brussels political scientist Jonathan Holslag published a complex book about a complex world. He travels through three decades on the basis of eight themes. Friends had told him that eight was too much for the reader, but Holslag persisted. It is important to see the world as it is, he says: “a dark, vast complex of intrigue, alliances and conflict.”
He starts his story, that you can’t do justice in a cramped column, with the fall of the Wall and ends with the construction of new walls. That was well seen. Just as the book is on the Flemish bestseller list, politicians are discussing whether the EU should fund border barriers to keep out migrants.
The world has been talking about the climate for thirty years, and yet emissions continue to rise
In the first ten years after the fall of the Wall, the West failed to breathe new life into democracy and the free market, says Holslag. The emphasis was on consumption and the interests of large companies.
Between 2000 and 2010, trade and economy grew, but democratization stagnated. The US took on the wrath of the Muslim world, China grew stronger, and Chinese capital empowered authoritarian leaders.
In the years to 2020, cosmopolitan forces clashed with nationalism. The neglect of the global South led to instability and migration. Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia jumped into the vacuum created by the withdrawal of the West. Trump proclaimed the end of globalization. Holslag does not predict the end of the West, but does show that the US and Europe have missed a golden opportunity.
And here we are now in Glasgow. The global South is critical of the rich North. The EU is trying to lead the way, but Poland and Hungary are gnawing at the European consensus. The leaders of Russia and China did not show up.
Joe Biden was there. He denounced Xi Jinping’s absence. That was obvious, but it was also gratuitous because China does have a say in Glasgow. It was also not very productive because the key to the climate problem lies precisely with the US and China as the world’s biggest polluters.
It is hoped that the two antagonists find each other on this topic – in Glasgow or beyond. After all, before the Wall came down, the US and Soviet Union were also able to negotiate nuclear weapons, the great threat of that era.
Geopolitics editor Michel Kerres and Eastern Europe expert Hubert Smeets alternately write about the tilting world order.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC in the morning of November 5, 2021
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