With future difficult negotiations in sight, the war in Ukraine, which began eight months ago, today runs the risk of weakening the unity of the European Union, at a time when the Franco-German axis, considered key, shows signs of weakness .
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The current situation is conducive to “new imbalances”analyzes for AFP Jean Dominique Giuliani, president of the Robert Schuman Foundation think tank.
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Western Europe, the historical heart of the European project, reacted with surprise to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, earning it strong criticism from Eastern European countries such as Poland and the Baltic States.
“It is true that the countries of Eastern Europe gained some weight since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, after having warned their partners for years of the danger that Russia posed. But these concerns were always misunderstood by Western Europe, especially by the Germans and the French,” stresses Giuliani.
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Statements by French President Emmanuel Macron this Sunday further fueled the perception in Eastern capitals of a blinded Western Europe. According to the French leader, “Russian power fed on the rancor and humiliation caused by the dismemberment of the Soviet empire.”
“There is an arrogance on the part of the Poles and the Balts, who are convinced that they have been right against everyone else. But to say that there is a moral authority of these countries at the moment is not true, the moral authority is the leadership , is not being right,” says a French diplomatic source on condition of anonymity.
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The European bloc, however, faces a problem: one of its axes, the Franco-German duo, seems stuck.
There is an arrogance on the part of the Poles and the Balts, who are convinced that they have been right against everyone else
The differences between the two countries regarding energy policies or joint weapons projects are such that they had to postpone a meeting scheduled for Wednesday until January.
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On Saturday, another planned parliamentary meeting between France, Germany and Poland was cancelled.
no center of gravity
The Franco-German couple experienced “difficult times. In general, both countries try to find a compromise, precisely because they originally did not get along. But we clearly have a period of crisis and the Franco-German relationship seems more tense than ever,” he explains. AFP Sylvie Bermann, former French ambassador to China, the United Kingdom and Russia.
Added to this tense relationship is the fact that Nor does it seem that other axes are going to work much better, especially since the resignation in Italy of the pro-European Mario Draghiwhich gave way to a government led by the far-right Giorgia Meloni.
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In general, “the EU lacks a clear center of gravity, among others due to the failure of the Franco-Italian axis. Today we have a far-right government in Italy, which probably does not want to cooperate with France for the good of the EU” , stresses an EU minister who does not want to be identified. As for Germany, “it is in serious difficulties, which forces it to focus on its internal problems,” adds this minister.
However, he admits that “Olaf Scholz is not as weak as some say. He is worth more than that, but he has not yet shown it”.
In any case, Warsaw “will not replace Berlin, Paris or Rome”, even if it “gains weight”, he analyzes.
Fatigue
The war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia caused a wave of increases in oil, gas and electricity prices.
Also, The European economy depends on hydrocarbon imports and suffers like no one else from gas supply interruptions imposed by Russia in reaction to European sanctions. A situation that particularly affects Germany, which before the war in Ukraine depended on more than 55% of Russian gas deliveries.
Faced with this complex panorama, Europe is slow to react and has difficulties in finding common solutions.
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France, for example, is betting on nuclear power and Germany on coal. And in central Europe, some countries are historically linked to Russian hydrocarbons.
After intense negotiations, the leaders of the European Union agreed early Friday to move towards a common response to the energy crisis.
But there are still many points to be decided and the negotiations in the coming weeks promise to be difficult.
“What we see more and more is a weariness and a possible progressive erosion of consensus” in Europe, Stefano Braghiroli, a professor and researcher at the Estonian Johann Skytt Center for Political Science at the University of Tartu, told AFP.
AFP
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