Washington would cut the sale of technology and software to Chinese companies
On February 4, President Xi Jinping received Vladimir Putin at what is known as the Olympics Summit, just two weeks before the curtain was opened on the Olympic torch. It culminated with promises of eternal love, a friendship that has been forging for years, and that the United States is now putting to the test: If China helps Russia evade sanctions “it will suffer severe consequences,” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki warned. without spelling them.
In 2012, China became Russia’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade growing at a rate of 11% daily, to reach 50 billion dollars. Over the years, the two leaders cooked pancakes and drank vodka together while signing other agreements, the last one during that Olympics summit, in which China sealed the purchase of one hundred million barrels of crude oil when Putin already knew that invading Ukraine would require new buyers for its energy sector.
The sanctions that the West imposed on Russia for the annexation of Crimea in 2014 did nothing more than strengthen the relationship solidified in the construction of gas pipelines and commercial agreements that supply European spite, and those of Ukraine follow the same pattern. China already shares 2,900 kilometers of gas pipeline, through which it receives 16,000 million cubic meters of gas, and last February it agreed to build another that will supply 10,000 million more. In order to continue benefiting from its friendship with Russia, and the advantageous conditions that it offers in these circumstances, it was not necessary for Beijing to condemn the invasion of Crimea, only to look the other way, as it does now with Ukraine.
At every UN Security Council meeting, Chinese diplomats pull a fine line to avoid taking positions and abstain from condemnation votes, but reveal their colors by calling for the world to “respond to Russian security concerns.” China presents itself as “a defender of peace” and says it wants to play the role of mediator in the conflict. Washington, however, believes that seeking to take advantage of this troubled river.
Having cut the umbilical cord with the West, Moscow has turned to the Asian power to serve as a lifeline. The energy agreements that it has signed will allow it to export 26,000 million cubic meters of natural gas to China, almost half of the 55,000 that Nord Stream 2 was going to take to Germany. “China’s friendship with Russia is solid as a rock” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi confirmed at the beginning of the conflict. On Tuesday, however, he said he did not want to get involved in the sanctions and assured the Spanish Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares, by telephone that his country seeks peace.
In the financial sector, the seven large Russian banks that Europe has disconnected from the Swift system could recover a little oxygen to receive payments and carry out transactions through the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS, for its acronym in English). Swift’s rival Chinese system is not even half as high, because last year it handled an average of 13,000 daily operations, compared to the 40 million that are operated through Swift in 11,000 banks in 200 countries.
If it helps Russia evade sanctions, China could face the same punishment it rejects for Russia on the bench of international bodies as “ineffective.” Beijing believes it has an economy large enough to absorb such an onslaught, something it has already demonstrated by navigating Donald Trump’s tariff outbursts. Another thing is that their companies want to risk the US cutting off the supply of software and technology necessary to continue operating, as US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo threatened last week.
The seven-hour meeting that took place on Monday in Rome between the US delegation led by the White House National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, and his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, were described by US diplomats as “tense” and «intense». The US privately says it believes that China is already sabotaging the embargo, but publicly offers no evidence.
There is still a third front on the international scene where China can take advantage of the current vulnerability of both Russia and the US: Latin America. That is where critics at home ask the Joe Biden government to invest to prevent this vacuum from offering global victory to the Asian giant.
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