In Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important swing state, Kamala Harris is well ahead of Donald Trump. But that doesn’t have to mean much.
Washington DC – Barack Obama has also been on the campaign trail since yesterday. The former US President made his first appearance before this year’s in Pittsburgh US election. That his campaign for Kamala Harris begins in Pennsylvania comes as no surprise. The state is one of the seven particularly contested “swing states”, with 19 electors up for grabs, the largest and probably the most important. Statistics show that whoever loses here has little chance of winning the White House
The latest numbers on the US election from Pennsylvania are all the more exciting. These are not just opinion surveys, but also concrete interim results from postal voting. Data analyst Joshua Smithley distributes them daily. He relies on the data from registered voters republican and Democrats requested postal voting documents as well as those that arrive at the authorities filled out. As of Thursday, 238,877 Democrats had voted, but only 76,236 Republicans.
Significantly more Democrats are voting by mail in the US election
Such intermediate situations would be unthinkable in Germany, but in the USA they are completely normal. The Pennsylvania Board of Elections distributes a daily table with the latest numbers from all counties.
The columns read impressively, but are only half the story. In fact, the statistics only show that voters registered as Democrats have voted significantly more often. It is not clear for whom. It can be assumed that alienation from one’s own candidate could be more of an issue among Republicans, where some voters have difficulty with the aggressive style Donald Trump’s. But that is speculation.
It will be exciting in the US election campaign
Be well informed with our free US election newsletter. Contributions from our renowned partners, such as the Washington Post, provide you with the US perspective. Translated into German. Click here to subscribe to the US election compact newsletter.
Donald Trump has been sowing distrust in postal voting in the USA for years
It is also completely unclear whether the Democrats’ dominance reflects a trend or is simply a result of the euphoria of the first election days. Smithley assumes the latter. It is well known that Democrats are more open to postal voting. Republican voters, especially seniors, but also people with lower levels of education, prefer direct voting.
In addition, Trump has been sowing distrust in postal voting for years. In 2020, this meant that in Pennsylvania, for example, the Republican was initially clearly ahead due to the votes cast directly on election evening, before the massive Democratic advantage in postal voting Joe Biden but still helped to a narrow victory. For Trump, this trend was again an indication of alleged manipulation.
Tough fight for swing state Pennsylvania in US election
Republicans have learned from the experience of 2020. They are now encouraging their voters to make greater use of the option to vote by post. They should also use the currently clear figures as an incentive to mobilize the base even more. “Trump spent more time and money in Pennsylvania than in any other state,” says Berlin strategy consultant Julius van de Laar, who himself campaigned for Obama, including in Pennsylvania. He is convinced that the Republicans will do everything they can to get ahead of Harris.
Even Trump called for postal voting in the spring, but recently he has been spreading conspiracy theories again. His party has at least managed to get more supporters to register in Pennsylvania. In mid-September it was 40.2 percent of all registered voters, in 2020 only 36.9. They are still four points behind the Democrats, but for them the 44.0 is the lowest value in decades. At its peak in 2009 it was 51.2.
Democrats in Pennsylvania confident of victory ahead of US election
In the Democratic camp, Smithley, who is openly in favor of Harris, is causing enthusiasm with his data offensive. However, he warns that statistically there is still a long way to go before victory. In order to be able to cushion the Republican onslaught on election day, they need a cushion of at least 390,000 postal votes. At the moment it’s not even half.
#election #campaign #full #swing #Harris #leading #huge #margin