The uncertain path that Venezuela has ahead for the presidential elections

The presidential election in Venezuela is near. Constitutionally, it corresponds to do it in the year 2024. However, the ruling party has insinuated that 2023 is a possibility. What is certain so far is that, as almost always, the opposition does not look unified, while the chavism shows calm and everything points to Nicolás Maduro running for a third term.

The opponents of the Government have spoken of holding primaries in the first quarter of 2023, this as a mechanism to choose the candidate. The proposal has been met God given hair, making jokes on his television program saying that if the elections are brought forward, the opponents will not even have anyone to present to the contest.

Although no date has been defined for these primaries, the names of Juan Guaidó, María Corina Machado, Henrique Capriles, Manuel Rosales, Andrés Velásquez, Juan Pablo Guanipa, William Dávila, Carlos Prosperi, Delsa Solórzano, Carlos Ocariz, Leocenis García and Nicmer Evans They are among the applicants who want to reach the seat of the Miraflores Palace.

Among them, Guaido (Popular Will) Capriles (First Justice), Prosperi (Democratic Action) and Solórzano (Citizen Encounter) have begun to tour the country. Some have been better received than others.

However, the latest survey by the Datanalisis firm positions Maduro above all, although with a percentage of around 20 percent. Manuel Rosalesgovernor of the state of Zulia, bordering Colombia, has an acceptance of 17 percent, while Guaidó reaches 9 percent.

Luis Vicente León, director of Datanalisis, explains that if the opposition primaries were today, “without political changes, campaigns, primaries or surprises, there are five candidates who compete at similar levels and are traditional: Rosales, María Corina, Capriles, Guaidó and Falcon. So the game is open and there’s a lot to go.”

Although in political times the presidential election is just around the corner, the citizens’ time is heading in another direction. People on the street prefer to go about their daily lives fighting against inflation and difficulties in public services.

Although Maduro has announced the long-awaited economic recovery, the truth is that economists agree that only 12 percent of the population feels this relief to a great extent, driven by the current use of dollars.

Guaidó, in campaign

“The elections that they owe us.” This has been one of the many campaign messages that Guaidó has used since his media arrival on the public scene in 2019, referring to the fact that in 2018 “there was no” presidential election.

The opposition leader assures that since then Maduro “usurps” the presidency, declared so by the 2015 National Assembly, which Guaidó still presides over, as well as the so-called interim government still supported by the United States.

On the other hand, Guaidó called a few days ago for a surprise mobilization to one of the headquarters of the National Electoral Council in Caracas (CNE) to “activate” a kind of counter of the days that “Maduro has left in power.”

That walk of a few streets was filled with Voluntad Popular militants brought by bus from various Venezuelan states.

When asked by EL TIEMPO if he aspired to run for president, he only said that he would continue working until democracy was achieved in Venezuela. However, unofficially, a member of his work team told this newspaper that on January 5 it is likely that the opponent will announce his name in the primaries and will ask for a replacement to fill the interim position.

The truth is that, like last year, the seams and fractures of the opposition will be seen for this debate on the legitimacy and continuity of Guaidó, who is sustained thanks to the United States.

While this is happening, the complexity of Venezuelan politics continues. And it is that the negotiation table between both political sectors would be about to begin, left a year ago in Mexico and that several international actors have wanted to reactivate. Pressured, in part, by the United States, which recently released the nephews of the first lady of Venezuela, Cilia Flores. In exchange, Venezuela released five former directors of the Citgo oil company and a former Marine. Out of this exchange was Álex Saab, from Barranquilla, who, with Venezuelan nationality, is defended by the Maduro government.

Dialogues, negotiations or agreements may be seen in the coming days. Now that Colombia is playing a mediating role between Venezuela and the world (see attached note), it is possible that both national and international political processes will speed up, leading to a revitalization of Venezuelan politics and even a possible advancement of presidential elections.

ANA RODRIGUEZ BRAZON
TIME CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS