The ‘Trump effect’ is diluted on Wall Street while the European stock market takes distance

Less than a month ago since Donald Trump became the 47th president of the United States after a speech of just 30 minutes during which, during his swearing, he assured that the “golden age” of the country began at that time in the That, simultaneously, the door of a legislature like Joe Biden’s that, under his point of view, caused the “decline” of the United States. With a dye similar to what was said in 2017, the tycoon implied that he was the only person capable of returning to America the lost luster and did so with the immediate signature of up to 100 executive orders focused on immigration, the commercial war or The energy.

Endless rubrics that had replica in the markets. After climbing during the first half of January, more than 0.5%, the US dollar has softened its behavior with an accumulated decline of 1.8% since Trump’s possession inside the Capitol in Washington (USA ) On January 20. With respect to the rest of developed currencies (euro, pound ..) or emerging (Mexican weight or reminue), the Green ticket He has lost brightness, above all, from the moment the White House turned back with tariffs to Mexico and Canada postponing a first decision to impose new commercial obstacles for a month as governments negotiate and investors digest the headlines .

Starting its path on the field of cryptocurrencies and after returning to power, Trump launched a Altcoin with which, in a matter of hours, he kneaded billions of dollars. On the days, on January 23, he issued a decree to boost the leadership of the United States in this industry – together with another to accelerate the artificial intelligence – seeking to reduce the regulation of cryptoactives and in order to “protect and Promote the ability of individual citizens and private sector entities to access and use for lawful purposes open public networks Blockchain Without persecution, including the ability to develop and deploy software, participate in mining and validation, perform transactions with other unlawful censorship and maintain the self -ocustody of digital assets. “

Some lines that raised some optimism in this market that, after having uploaded almost 53% from the day of the elections until last January 20, is beginning to correct. Bitcoin began to fall three weeks ago to accumulate so far an assignment greater than 8%. In the same period, the index of Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto It has lost 15.53% capitalization. The Bitcoin in cash is negotiated over $ 96,600 after obtaining in December $ 102,000 marking a new historical record after knowing that Trump was going to nominate Paul Atkins -favorrable to these assets – as the new president of the Bag and Securities Commission of the United States (SEC) replacing Gary Gensler.

Next to Bitcoin, Trump’s cryptocurrency has fallen more than 5.8% waiting to see what the announcement is concretized during the Republican’s electoral campaign to create an American National Bitcoins national reserve. Almost a month after being appointed president, the Federal Administration has not offered more details about its plans to carry out a measure of this caliber.

In addition, the variable rental market has accused a certain loss of luster in the last three weeks. Tesla – which was expected to benefit from a close relationship between President Trump and his founder, Elon Musk – accumulates a correction of more than 14% since January 20, as opposed to the 55.7% rise signed between 5 November and Trump’s oath. During the same period, Actions of the media conglomerate of the New York businessman have fallen about 10%which contrasts with the gain of 18% achieved in the previous three months.

A situation that, despite not being in the same magnitude, can be extrapolated to the indices. In the case of S&P 500, The gain registered in the most recent period since mid -January has been 1.39%, which has made it a situation of Impasse without a defined fixed course after playing historical maximums at the beginning of the year. In fact, between November and January the American selective increased its capitalization by 4.39% while in Nasdaq He did the same in the environment of almost 6% – since January 20 has not gained more than 2.5% – and the Dow Jones in 4.58% to which a brief 0.8% improvement should be added in the last three weeks.

A reality that is causing some nervousness among investors. According to the latest survey of the American Investor Association, More than 47% of respondents have become pessimistic regarding the return that US variable income can offer during the next months. This is the highest point since the end of 2023.

In contrast to the American reality, the rest of the main world bags live a sweet beginning of 2025. Since the beginning of the year, the Eurostoxx 50 He has gained more than 9.3% value – having historical maximums last week for the first time in 25 years – and the Hang Seng Chinese 14.35% thanks, in part, the optimism generated around artificial intelligence after the emergence of Deepseek promising generative models similar to Americans with reduced costs.

Goldman warns of Chinese outburst

Even with everything, the first warnings about the AI ​​on this path undertaken by the Asian giant market at its exit from postpandemic lethargy are already heard. In a report published this past Monday, Goldman Sachs analysts have increased the target price of the Chinese index OnshoreCSI 300, up to 4,700 points, which implies a return of more than 19% from the current levels, but also warn of the fundamental limits that support the indices.

“We estimate that the generalized adoption of AI could increase the benefit by the action of Chinese quoted by 2.5% per year during the next decade. The improvement of growth perspectives and, perhaps, an increase in trust could also increase the fair value of local actions by up to 20% and potentially generate more than 200,000 million dollars in portfolio tickets“, notice the experts of the US investment bank.

And is that the caution remains a general tonic in reports on the country led by Xi Jinping. Throughout the study document, the strategists warn that “despite the promising one that the AI” may be “for China’s growth trajectory,” strong stimulus policies “are required with the intention of addressing economic imbalances” deeply rooted “and boost” sustainable “capital gains.

At the end of 2024, the CSI 300 increased its yield by 14%, compared to a gain greater than 23% for the S&P 500 after three years of losses.