“The number of people who interprets erroneously the percentages of the apps of the time“. With this phrase a young Andalusian teacher begins to explain the true meaning of the numbers that so many doubts raise in society.
TikTok @antropizarrte account has denied the bulos and beliefs that exist in this regard in a publication that has been visualized by more than 330,700 users. Showing a weekly forecast in which they seem ten days with high percentages of rainshe says that “if in those 10 days not a drop of water, the majority would be outraged saying that those of time ”They don’t give a“When the reality is that the predictions would have been fulfilled.”
“To understand what the probability of rain tells us we will first see What does not tell us. It does not tell us that 70% of the meteorologists consulted believe that it will rain, “he says. In turn, he has denied that this percentage refers to the total area of the place where there would be rainfall.” He doesn’t tell us either during 70% of the day“, reveals.
“Regarding the latter, the thing is even more complicated because we are also offered a forecast for the probability of rain, which in most cases offers much lower percentages That the total of the day, “he adds.
The key to identifying the percentage
For this teacher, the key is to understand that “gadgets are not used” to predict time, “but a complex data interpretation system called set prediction method.” First, it is done “a Analysis of the state of the atmosphere through the data extracted by radars, satellites and weather stations. “
“This will lead to an initial prediction and subsequently 50 slightly altered situations are added through statistical calculations and techniques. That is, we would have an observed situation and then 50 possible scenarios that could also occur from these initial conditions, “says the Andalusian.
“In this way, we will obtain 51 different time forecasts for a specific place and day,” he says. Also, “if these 51 scenarios rains in 30, the probability will be 60% and if there is rain in everything, it will be 100%.” If I have a 95% probability of rain, that means that Every 100 predictions that were launched in 95 models predicted rainfall”
The percentages per hour are lower than the newspapers
In addition, Tiktok’s video is questioned why the percentages per hour are lower than those collected for the whole day. “Perhaps the probability that it rains in a specific hour is not very high, but throughout the day many hours are repeated with rainmost likely at some point it will happen“He explains.
“What the prediction is saying is that at some point in the day it will rain. You can put 95% probability and Maybe what they have fallen are three drops At 3.00 hours while you were asleep or on the other side of the city and you haven’t even learned. “
That is why @antropizarte emphasizes that “it cannot be said that the prediction has failed.” “Even if it did not rain, one could not say that it has failed because it is a probabilistic prediction. Meteorology It is not a completely accurate science“, sentence.
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