Beyond a spontaneous territorial confrontation, the escalation of tension between Moscow and Kiev has been hatched for more than a decade of geostrategic interests and violent episodes
The Ukraine conflict is not new. In reality, the germ of what is now happening between this former Soviet republic and Russia dates back to 2010. A host of circumstances, political strategies and violent episodes have since shaped a scenario of growing tension. Here are the main keys to the confrontation.
one. Relations between Kiev and Moscow began to deteriorate in 2004, on the occasion of the first Maidan, the Orange Revolution. But the rise to power of Victor Yanukovych in 2010 fueled hopes in Moscow for greater control over Ukraine.
two. However, the stubbornness of Vladimir Putin to lower the high gas prices to Ukraine, only in the event that it became part of the post-Soviet economic union, led Yanukovych to flirt with the EU
3. Yanukovych was preparing to sign an integration agreement with the EU in November 2013, but while already in Vilnius (Lithuania) with European leaders he changed his mind when he obtained from Putin a promise to lower gas prices.
Four. Yanukovych’s swerve triggered the protests known as the second Maidan or Euromaidan that began on November 31, 2013 in Kiev. And, after more than two and a half months of protests, riots and brutal clashes with the police, mysterious snipers, Russians according to certain sources, massacred the demonstrators in Kiev on February 20, 2014.
5. Yanukovych, after signing an agreement with the three Maidan leaders to end the protests and call elections, suddenly disappeared for almost a week to reappear at a Russian military base in Sevastopol (Crimea). The Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) dismissed him.
6. Russia then annexed Crimea, in March 2014, arguing that its inhabitants decided so in a referendum, dissatisfied with what happened in Kiev and supposedly concerned about Ukrainian nationalism. He deployed covert troops there, without identification badges or license plates on their vehicles. The Ukrainian Army offered no resistance.
7. In a similar way to how it acted in Crimea, Russia sent camouflaged troops to the east of Ukraine, to Donbass, with the intention of separating that area from the rest of the country. The Ukrainian troops this time did act and a war broke out that caused 13,000 deaths. The bulk of the hostilities ended with the second draft of the Minsk agreements, in February 2015, although the trickle of deaths continues to this day.
8. The two separatist entities of Donbass, Donetsk and Lugansk, were separated from the rest of Ukraine by the so-called “contact line”, established by the Minsk agreements on a provisional basis until the complete resolution of the conflict.
9. The rearmament of Kiev and the purchase of drones from Turkey made the Russian authorities think that the Ukrainian troops are preparing to retake Donbass by force. Hence, they have decided to deploy forces along the border with Ukraine as a form of intimidation.
10. Various Russian leaders have hinted that, as they did with Georgia in August 2008, Russian troops would act if Kiev launches an attack on Donbass.
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