Individuals show greater confidence in the market and are committed to increasing their investment in deposits, funds, shares and treasury bills
Last week’s profit-taking once again gives way to purchases, showing that, despite occasional cuts, the bottom of the market remains positive. The Ibex-35 recovers 0.5% and 9,100 points in the day prior to the reference that will mark the future of the Stock Markets in the coming weeks: the inflation data in the US that will be released on Tuesday.
«American inflation has been falling uninterruptedly since July and, raising the perspective of the analysis, it is crucial that it continue to do so up to around +5%, because that price level would already be compatible with interest rates at 5.00/5.25% , which is the most probable terminal range”, indicate Bankinter analysts.
In the opinion of the experts, this, added to the full employment currently enjoyed by the American economy, with an unemployment rate of 3.4%, will result in a GDP that will probably recover dynamism sooner than expected.
Against this backdrop, this Monday Mapfre (+3.06%), Logista (+2.07%), Cellnex (+1.56%) and the banks led the top of the table. On the loss side, Grifols stands out (-2.20%), followed by Rovi (-1.24%), ArcelorMittal (-0.72%), Telefónica (-0.70%) or Repsol (-0, 65%).
The key, in inflation
If the forecasts of a more moderate inflation come true, investor confidence would be strengthened, as it would justify the rapid recovery of the markets at the beginning of the year. The experts are clear that the increases should be more progressive from now on because, if the rhythm is maintained, the Stock Markets would run out of travel for the rest of the year. But the feeling is much better than a few months ago.
This is also evidenced by the latest Confidence Index that JP Morgan AM has prepared every quarter since 2007 and which reflects how Spanish savers and investors have begun to recover their optimism regarding the evolution of the markets. Although this survey still registers a majority negative sentiment (-0.99 points), the confidence of individuals shows an evident improvement with respect to the previous measurement (July to September 2022), when the bad expectations of investors about the At the end of the year, the indicator sank to -2.7 points, reaching its lowest level since the strictest months of confinement in 2020.
«The perception that the war in Ukraine is stabilizing, the belief that the stock markets have bottomed out, as well as the expectation that inflation will moderate, are some of the reasons given by investors who trust in the good progress of the markets. », they indicate from the firm.
More deposits, bills… and pension plans
This JP Morgan AM survey also provides a detailed snapshot of individual savers and investors’ purchasing intentions for financial products. And the data reflects some curiosities. For example, 43% of Spanish investors and savers declared that they had a pension plan in the fourth quarter of 2022, which represents a five-point increase compared to the previous quarter, despite the new limitations on the deduction for contributions to these products.
Investment funds experienced a similar rise, becoming part of the portfolios of more than 30% of those surveyed -compared to 26% in the previous quarter-, which means recovering the data from the beginning of 2021, the best of the last decade.
The international manager’s survey also highlights the recovery of investment in debt (Treasury Bills, corporate bonds…), which experienced a two-point jump and for the first time in the historical series exceeded the 10% barrier in terms of presence in the wallets.
In the heat of the confidence shown, JP Morgan AM confirms in its survey how the intention to contract six months ahead also increases in all financial products (deposits, funds, shares, treasury bills…) In the same vein, the number decreases of people who say they will not invest in anything in the next six months, going from almost 30% to 22%, although in 2021 this figure remained at levels below 18%.
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