President Alberto Fernández and his vice, Cristina Fernández, Like all politicians in Argentina, they define their tactics and strategies guided in good part by the results of esurveys and other types of public opinion studies. They are now waiting for the conclusions of a new survey. They consider it essential to fine-tune or recalculate their proselytizing plan. Whoever is in charge of this analysis is one of the advisers who has the most influence on public policies and debates than trying to install the Frente de Todos. He is well recognized in the intimacy of the K power, and at the same time he is a stranger to the public. Even the most politicized.
His name is Alfredo Serrano Mancilla. He is 45 years old, he was born in La Línea de Concepción, Spain.
He received a doctorate in Economics from the Autonomous University of Barcelona; he advanced in postgraduate degrees at the Italian universities of Modena, and Bologna; and at the University of Quebec, Canada.
He directs the so-called Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics (CELAG). It is made up of more than 50 researchers who analyze the Political, social and economic “phenomena” of Latin America. CELAG publishes reports and articles warning about “the devastation” produced by neoliberalism; the lawfare; concentrated powers such as the media; and in which the advancement of governments in the region described as national and popular is celebrated, among which the Frente de Todos of Argentina is included.
Serrano Mancilla speaks of the “devastation” produced by “neoliberalism.”
Serrano Mancilla accepts that he collaborates with the President and the vice president. Both summoned him when in 2019 they read one of the polls on the presidential elections in which Peronism K would finally defeat Cambiemos. You meet with them, not often, but perhaps very intensely. His relationship is more fluid with the head of state. Many of the concepts or ideas, sometimes controversial, raised by both the President and the vice president are recognized in public works by Serrano Mancilla.
The influential unknown of the K power was linked with ancestry and closeness to the leader of Chavista regime of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro. He worked for the Podemos party in Spain. He even created CELAG with one of the founders of that Spanish movement, self-identified as leftist or ridiculed left, Juan Carlos Monedero. He did work for the former president of Ecuador, Rafael Correa, who is currently a member of the CELAG Consultative Council. The same as for the former president of Bolivia, Evo Morales. The former vice president of the latter, Álvaro García Linera, is also part of the CELAG Advisory Council. Like the current undersecretary for America and Latin of the Ministry of Foreign Relations of the Government of Mexico of Manuel López Obrador, Guillermo Reyes. There are also Argentines in that “organ”, such as Atilio Borón, a columnist for Page 12.
It was Nicolás Maduro who highlighted him as one of the pillars of the guidelines of the Venezuelan economy. In a public act, he called him “The Jesus Christ of the Economy”. It was in September 2016. According to a note from the Spanish newspaper El Mundo, at that time Maduro appointed him to a high position in the so-called “Great Sovereign Supply Mission,” a government plan to try to curb hunger in crisis-stricken Venezuela. . Serrano Mancilla clarified that this appointment was an error, which was corrected five days after it was published in the Bolivarian Official Gazette. The rest of that “collegiate” body was made up of the chiefs of the Armed Forces most loyal to the regime.
From Maduro, Correa, Podemos and Evo, now Serrano Mancilla passed to the Kirchners and Fernández.
What are the ideas of Serrano Mancilla that were taken as their own in part of the K speech, or are they even hinted or made explicit in reforms or economic directions that have not been fully realized?
Serrano Mancilla went from Maduro, Evo and Correa to Cristina and Alberto.
The answer could be summarized in a single paragraph of the CELAG document entitled “Latin America in Dispute II”. It goes like this: “… the State must have a leading role with expansive countercyclical policies (fiscal and monetary)”, something repeated by most of the leadership of the ruling coalition. It is also added in this text that “greater control of capital from emerging countries is necessary to prevent their flight in this time of adversity.”
And “that the economy has to revolve around human life.” Regarding vaccines against Covid-19, he points out that “the formulas for the production of vaccines cannot be subject to commercial logic.” In the surveys carried out by CELAG in Argentina, they ask about the acceptance of a “health reform” so that there is only one public health system: the state one.
Unobjectionable sources in the Casa Rosada confirmed that Serrano Mancilla is consulted by the President and the vice, and that he was also commissioned an important survey to define the electoral campaign.
Serrano Mancilla was once mentioned in public by the vice because, according to her, he was the only pollster who anticipated the electoral triumph of 2019. He himself admits that correct forecast.
Consulted by ClarionSerrano Mancilla himself admitted the link with Government K. According to him, he is not an advisor to the Frente de Todos. He explains it like this: “I am not an advisor, counselor or consultant. I do not receive remuneration from the Frente de Todos, I do not have a public position ”.
Although he tries to minimize his role and ascendancy over the Quinta de Olivos or the Instituto Patria, he accepts that “it is true that our work can have an influence on the Argentine public debate, as a space of thought one produces things, surveys are questions of public debate and we publish ours ”.
Serrano Mancilla says that “I met Alberto and Cristina through a first survey that we did. I met them both at the same time in 2019. When I presented that survey to you. From there I have met more than once with them ”.
The specialist in Economy and Public Opinion also denies that he had influence in Venezuela, for example. But Maduro’s sayings indicate otherwise.
His sympathy with Chavismo is unquestionable. In his book “The economic thought of Hugo Chávez”, as the Spanish media pointed out at the time, Serrano Mancilla calls the late Caribbean president as “Eternal Commander.”
Serrano Mancilla also worked for the Podemos party in Spain.
What does Serrano Mancilla think about the result of the next elections?
He answers it: “Without being precise in the data of how much percentage each party would get, the Frente de Todos will be the first force and Cambiemos the second. Our hypothesis is that the differences in votes for the Frente de Todos will be similar to the one that took out Cambiemos in 2019. CI believe that the situation is similar to that of those elections. When one looks at the results of voter measurements regarding ‘feelings’ the numbers are usually very stable. That happens to the Frente de Todos and Kirchnerism in particular. Cristina’s figures are what they are. And those of macrismo are also stable ”.
Although the leader of Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, did badly in the last elections in Spain (he announced his retirement from politics); that the economic, social and even humanitarian situation in Venezuela is a catastrophe, according to international organizations; and that other of his advisors, such as former Ecuadorian president Correa, had to go into exile in Brussels after being sentenced guilty in a corruption case, for Serrano Mancilla the coalition of the Frente de Todos will win the elections and also “will continue to play a central role in politics. for much longer ”.
Serrano Mancilla maintains a good dialogue with academics whom he considers colleagues even though they think differently, such as the historical advisor to Cambiemos, Jaime Durán Barba, with whom he has a cordial and respectful bond.
A star is born: the Kirchners had an “advisor” that society did not know.
At least, Argentina.