The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to skyrocket: the levels of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide in 2023 marked another maximum, condemning the planet to “many years of increasing temperatures”, according to the latest Bulletin of the Meteorological Organization World (WMO).
In 2023, high emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, huge forest fires (a consequence of climate change) and a possible reduction in carbon absorption by forests (saturated with capturing the CO2 released by human activities) were combined. , so that the level of this gas reached 420 parts per million (ppm) on an annual average.
These levels are uncharted territory for humans as the last time the planet recorded a comparable concentration of CO2 was between three and five million years ago. In this context, the planet’s global temperature was between 2ºC and 3ºC higher and the sea level was between 10 and 20 meters higher than today.
Along with carbon dioxide, the dome of gases that trap the Sun’s heat and retain it on Earth is completed, above all, by methane and nitrous oxide (N2O). Both marked historic peaks last year, according to WMO data. Methane (CH4) is already 265% higher than in pre-industrial times (1750) and nitrous oxide is 125%.
This increasingly dense dome, or gaseous crust, traps solar radiation that should escape into outer space after bouncing off Earth. This trapped radiation (heat) raises the planet’s global temperature and alters the climate. From there the effects of the climate crisis are unleashed.
Another year, another record. This should set off all the alarm bells among the decision-making bodies. There is no doubt that we are very far from meeting the objective of the Paris Agreement
Celeste Saulo
— WMO Secretary General
The speed at which the greenhouse layer is thickening is unprecedented. In the last 20 years, the concentration of CO2 has grown by 11%. “The accumulation has never been so rapid in the history of humanity,” specifies the Bulletin.
“Another year, another record. This should set off all the alarm bells among the decision-making bodies. There is no doubt that we are very far from meeting the objective of the Paris Agreement,” says the Secretary General of the WMO, Celeste Saulo.
Because as long as emissions continue, greenhouse gases will continue to accumulate in the atmosphere and this undoubtedly leads to a rise in global temperatures. At the current level, the rise in temperatures will persist for decades because CO2 remains in the atmosphere for “extremely long periods.”
Furthermore, as gases linked to the current production and consumption system continue to be pumped, “we run the risk of being trapped in a vicious circle: climate change itself could turn ecosystems into important sources of greenhouse gases instead of sinks” explains the organization’s deputy secretary, Ko Barrett.
So far, data indicate that just under half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, the ocean absorbs just over a quarter, and terrestrial ecosystems just under 30%. The vicious cycle that Barret warns of would change this balance.
National climate plans fall short
However, when there are few dates left to begin the Climate Summit (COP29) in Azerbaijan, the review of the climate plans presented by the countries (the NDCs) carried out by the UN indicates that, all together, they would be able to cut emissions in 2030 only 2.6% compared to 2019 levels. In other words: they are 43% short if they intend to comply with the Paris Agreement.
The states are preparing new plans to present next year so, the analysis insists, so far “there is only marginal progress since last year. “A fraction of what is expected and urgently needed.”
“Current national plans fall far short of what is needed to stop global warming. The progress made so far is very small compared to what is expected to be achieved next year,” said the executive secretary of the United Nations Climate Change Convention, Simon Stiell.
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