Each date that is met in Ukraine is one more blow to the wound of a country that is not allowed to raise its head. This Tuesday, the Russian invasion reaches 1,000 days of war with the situation on the ground undergoing important changes, especially on the Donbas front, where Russian troops advance slowly. Meanwhile, the diplomacy that had stalled while awaiting the arrival of a new president in the United States has once again occupied the front pages of the media around the world. Donald Trump will take office at the end of January next year and, with him, there could be changes in the course of the conflict. The Ukrainian authorities look to the west with a mixture of uncertainty and resignation, aware that without American help they will have a very difficult time holding out on the battlefield; but without giving for the moment any sign that they are willing speak in a negotiation about the loss of land that Russia has occupied.
Throughout this time Moscow’s pretensions have been changing. From the attempt to bring down the capital in a few days, we went on to accept a war of attrition that for two years has turned the fronts into places that, if it were not for the images of drones attacking soldiers, are more reminiscent of the First World War. World War than a 21st century conflict. Russia has already given up on conquering all Ukrainian territorybut continues with the intention of keeping the provinces occupied (and annexed through a referendum with little international recognition). Crimea, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk They continue to be disputed terrain for Russia and places where bombings and attacks between both countries are part of daily life.
On the other hand, kyiv decided several months ago go on the attack, occupying a small part of the Russian province of Krusk. The president, Volodymyr Zelensky, intended this to be a call to the Russian population that their country was not safe and that this territory would serve as a bargaining chip in a future peace plan. The other objective of this was for Russia to withdraw part of its soldiers from Donbas to defend its territory, something that has not happened. Today the territory of eastern Ukraine is more occupied than then. Russia, aware of its complications in continuing to recruit soldiers, has decided to involve its ally, North Korea, which has sent more than 10,000 soldiers to supplement this war effort, internationalizing a war that, on the other hand, to a greater or lesser extent I already had everyone involved.
According to UNHCR data, since August alone, some 170,000 people have been forced to flee their homes in the eastern regions of the country to other places both within and outside its borders. These 1,000 days of conflict have caused one of the worst humanitarian crises in memory and there are currently almost four million displaced people within Ukraine and 6.7 million refugees in other countries, among whom some 400,000 moved to other parts of Europe in the first seven months of 2024.
“Although the front may seem static, Russia could be preparing some offensive. Especially in the Dontesk oblast,” he assures 20 minutes Army Major General Jesús Argumosa Pila. And in recent weeks the Kremlin troops have been targeting Pokrovsk as their most juicy objective, a logistical hub in the southeast of Ukraine and considered the gateway to the Donetsk region. The city has a key road and rail system for Ukrainian troops, which could complicate supply on the front in towns such as Chasiv Yar and Kostiantynivka. “This Russian offensive could come before Trump reaches the White House on January 20,” says Argumosa.
How much will Trump’s arrival influence us?
“I’m not going to start any war, I’m going to stop them,” said the president-elect in his speech after winning the elections. Throughout the campaign, the Republican stressed that was going to end military aid to Ukrainesince, from his point of view, it only helped to prolong a conflict that he said could end before even taking possession. His good rapport with Putin in the past and his contacts with Zelensky have been his greatest asset in selling that idea of a peacemaker. Something that may not be so simple when trying to sit both leaders at the negotiating table.
The newspaper Washington Post published this week that one day after winning the elections, Trump and Putin spoke by telephone, where the issue of war was addressed and the new occupant of the Oval Office would have asked not to escalate the conflict. Trump’s team has not commented on this, although the Kremlin came out to deny said contact and In recent days it has launched several massive attacks on Ukraine. Producing one of the largest exchanges of drone attacks between Russia and Ukraine of the entire war.
“The attacks contradict any pretense of diplomacy on Russia’s part,” Zelensky himself said on the day of the attacks. “Ukraine needs weapons to defend itself from Russian terrorism and greater global support for diplomacy to be real and effective. Without principled decisions and strong support for Ukraine, Russia will have no reason to seek peace and will continue to choose new goals“the Ukrainian leader insisted, in a clear message to Trump and his intentions to reduce economic and military support to his Army.
“You never know with Trump, because he is a kind of agent of chaos. If you look at his first term, he said he was going to improve relations with Russia in record time and he never did. Therefore, One thing is the declarations and another thing is how they are executed.“, María José del Pozo, professor of International Relations at the Complutense University of Madrid, explains to this medium. “Normally the foreign policy of the United States does not change, it does not matter whether it is a Republican or Democratic administration. “Donald Trump made several changes such as accepting Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara or the transfer of the headquarters of the United States Embassy to Jerusalem and Joe Biden did not change it,” he adds.
For the UCM professor, what could happen is that, as a result of the supposed fatigue on the part of the North American population, the level of aid to Ukraine could be lowered. “The war can continue regardless of what the United States does”he acknowledges. At least for a while, since the last major aid package approved by Biden is still arriving and it is not clear that the Zelensky Government will agree to sit under the conditions that the new US Administration wants to force or that Russia exposes, which inevitably will contain the territorial dispute.
An uncertain future
For the experts consulted, Russia now has the negotiating power and feels strong. First because of the military successes in Donbas and then because it has managed to overcome the crisis of lack of soldiers with the arrival of North Korea, which has allowed it to keep its best soldiers in eastern Ukraine. Therefore, if anyone wants to negotiate now, it is not Putin; than sitting at the negotiating table, will do so at a high cost to Ukraine. Despite the Peace Plan presented by Zelensky in October, the Kremlin maintains the points it made months ago to talk about a cessation of hostilities: the neutrality of Ukraine, the abandonment of troops from the areas it is occupying in the four provinces and canceling all the economic sanctions against Russia.
Last Friday, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Rustem Umérov, denied that kyiv is willing to cede territory to Russia in exchange for guaranteeing security and assured that the integrity of the country is a “priority.” “First of all we are fighting for values like freedom and national interests and territorial integrity is a part of our values. It is our country. We choose to be part of NATO, of the European Union, of the civilized world and that is why We fight,” he said.
For Major General Argumosa, this round of negotiation could seek to stop the conflict without closing the immediate delivery of territories, which would be addressed later with mediation. In this sense, it ensures that “It would be a failure and a strategic failure for the future to hand over to Russia all the Ukrainian territory it has conquered”. “We have allowed one country to invade another and conquer it. This goes against all international law,” he adds.
However, military analysts and experts consider that it will be very difficult for part of the occupied territory to return to Ukrainian hands and that negotiations will inevitably lead to concessions. “Even if that territory is lost, the situation in Ukraine today is probably better than it was in February 2022, when Russia was at the gates of kyiv and everyone thought that the Ukrainian Army was going to fall in a very short time and that “Russia was going to control a large part or even the entire country,” says the UCM professor.
“The situation is very dangerous, winter is beginning and there may be a certain freezing of the front lines, which could give some oxygen to Ukraine. But that does not mean that the elephant in the room is not still there. Sooner or later we will have to sit down to negotiate“, says Pérez del Pozo.
#Russian #invasion #Ukraine #marks #days #eye #Trumps #arrival #promises #war
