He superweight it's a economic phenomenon which has intrigued many apprentice economists, who pretend to be experts, mostly people who presume that the exchange rate It is directly determined by the correct economic policy of the government in power. Although the government sometimes influences its pegs, these are floating exchange rates that depend on global currency markets.
Our currency is overvalued for the grand entrance of Dollars by exportsflows of foreign direct investmentthe remittances growing to levels never seen before, income from tourism and of organized crime. Likewise, the Mexican coin It is a highly sought-after medium of international exchange for large volume operations. And crowns this bunch of circumstances, that the reference interest rate in Mexico it is positive, more than six points above the inflation.
Having that superweight costs the government quite a bit, since it has to pay that differential to savers. Suppose a company has to pay $100 million in debt in the next six months, and has the money available. If you convert them into pesos you will earn a nominal interest rate of 10.25 percent and when you subtract the inflation rate you are left with a net interest of 6 percent, which is very attractive. If you invest them in US bonds, you will receive an interest rate of 5.25 percent and with inflation of 3.4 percent, so your net interest will be 1.85 percent. This differential is what favors the entry of dollars into Mexico in portfolio investments and Mexico ends up paying for it.
Another concern among laypeople is whether there will be a financial crisis at the end of this six-year term. Although it can never be ruled out that it will happen due to the great interconnection of finances, it is unlikely that it will occur in our country due to balance of payments deficit or exchange rate levels. In that sense, we are protected so that catastrophes like those of previous six-year terms do not occur. However, other threats are latent, and are just as dangerous.
The first of them is that the Morena government has been outlining a risky debt policy, to cover the obligations of pension payments and social programs, as well as the financial rescue of Pemex, which already owes more than 100 billion dollars. . Added to this is the decapitalization in areas of health, education, water, climate change, environmental issues, science and technology.
Morena's demagogic proposal regarding pensions, clearly clientelist, would be to pour gasoline on the fire of the precarious public finances we have.
Let's hope sanity prevails and nothing remains at stake, because if this happens, Mexico may enter a spiral of debt that breaks macroeconomic balances.
AMLO is handing over a country with finances on pins and needles and no remedial change is seen at this juncture. Whoever wins the presidency will win the tiger raffle.
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