The energy challenge in the Mediterranean: Draghi today in Algiers. The North African country breaks with Spain and binds to Italy
ALGIERS – ROME. Two photographs. The first, a month ago at Villa Madama. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez resurrect the European axis of the Mediterranean, with Portugal and Greece, to face together the energy price challenge imposed by the war in Ukraine. The second will be taken this afternoon in the halls of the presidential palace El Mouradia in Algiers: Draghi and President Abdelmadjid Tebboune shake hands to ratify the agreement that will allow Italy to increase the supply by at least 9 billion cubic meters more. coming from the North African country. An amount that is worth about one third of the total, 29 billion, of the Italian dependence on Moscow’s methane.
There is apparently no contradiction between the two photographs. They certainly testify to the activism of the Italian premier, committed to free himself from Vladimir Putin’s energy noose through a plan of bilateral contracts and geographical diversification of sources. But contextualizing the two events within the framework of the new diplomatic geometries, the result that can be drawn is that a risk has opened up on gas in the Mediterranean that balances different interests and cross competitions.
On the other side of the Mediterranean, in Spain, there is a coincidence: a few hours after the announcement of Sánchez’s trip to Morocco, to seal the new pact with King Mohammed VI, Algeria invited Draghi, anticipating a visit that it was scheduled for a date after May 2, the day of the end of Ramadan. A spite due to the twist of last month, when the government of Madrid, breaking alliances that had lasted for almost half a century, effectively recognized the sovereignty of Rabat over Western Sahara, the former Spanish colony that for years has been demanding independence , backed by a UN resolution that provides for a self-determination referendum. In a letter to Mohammed VI Sanchez spoke of “autonomy” as a “more reasonable” solution.
In exchange, Morocco promises to ease migratory pressure on Ceuta and Melilla, the two Spanish enclaves in North Africa, a particularly urgent issue, given the food crisis that the Ukrainian war is about to cause on the continent. Downloading the historic alliance with the Polisario Front cost Sánchez dearly, internally (the whole parliament voted against him) and externally. In fact, with one crisis closed, another one opens up for Spain: that with Algeria, which has always been an ally of the Sahrawi people and for this reason in bad relations with its Moroccan neighbor. The crisis between the two Maghreb countries precedes the Ukrainian earthquake: last November Algeria closed the Maghreb-Europe (GME) gas pipeline that pumped gas to the Iberian Peninsula via Morocco. The new era of Hispano-Moroccan relations had repercussions on the complex negotiations on the price of gas underway in Algiers. It is therefore no coincidence that Sonatrach has decided that the cost per cubic meter “can be recalculated”, as explained by CEO Toufik Hakkar.
In the Spanish government, these skirmishes are viewed with concern, but there is no reproach to Italy, which in these movements of geopolitical jealousies would have played a passive role. On the contrary, on the energy issue, discussions between Rome and Madrid are increasingly frequent, as demonstrated by the summit of Villa Madama, with Draghi and Sánchez. There is also a project for a gas pipeline that could connect Barcelona with the Ligurian coast. On the other hand, real competition between Italy and Spain would have no reason to exist, too different: Italy consumes 76 billion cubic meters of gas a year, against 33 in Spain, where six regasification plants are active (against our three ), in addition to nuclear power plants and a much larger share of wind power.
Today’s in Algiers is only the first step. The North African country is an important shore for Italy. It is the second largest gas supplier (31%) after Russia (40%) and is the first trading partner in Africa. Draghi and Tebboune – who should meet again in Algiers for an intergovernmental summit in the coming months – will sign a memorandum of understanding to implement gas exports. The agreement will be signed between Eni and Sonatrach, the state energy company. The goal is to increase the transport capacity of Transmed, the gas pipeline that emerges on the coast of Sicily. The increase can reach up to 10 billion, to be added to the current 21 billion cubic meters per year. After Easter Draghi will also be in Congo, for the signing of the contract that will guarantee another 5 billion cubic meters of gas to Italy. The stops in Mozambique and Angola have not yet been planned.
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