The candidacies of the socialists and the center-right arrive today at the elections in a technical tie that leaves a way out of the country’s political blockade in the air
The Portuguese population is called this Sunday to the polls with the intention of putting an end to the political blockade that Portugal is suffering and that has overshadowed the aspirations of the Prime Minister, António Costa, since his former leftist partners –communists and Bloco– turn their backs on him in the face of this year’s Budget vote. The lack of support to carry out the accounts, the first time that has happened since democracy was restored in 1974, forced President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to dissolve Parliament and call early elections in December.
De Sousa resorted to this instrument as the only alternative to unblock the political crisis, which adds seriousness to the instability typical of a country still dominated by the Covid-19 pandemic and with an economic recovery in the making. Despite the great hopes placed in the legislative elections, the electoral campaign concluded on Friday with an uncertain forecast, practically a technical tie, in which nothing is clear and everything is possible.
The race is very close between the Socialist Party (PS, center-left) and the Social Democratic Party (PSD, center-right). Although the former were running as favorites according to various recent polls, Costa, former mayor of Lisbon, has lost a popularity that the latter, the conservative Rui Rio, former mayor of Porto, have gained. The latest polls warn that both parties are very even. The Socialists would achieve 35% of the support (compared to the 38% they had at the beginning) and their main center-right competition would obtain 33% (three more points). Given the margin of error in the polls, nothing can be taken for granted and Portugal is heading today for a result that could end in the re-election of the PS – in power since 2015 thanks to the support of the left – or in the beginning of a new political cycle with the PSD at the head of the Executive. Yes, with alliances.
The keys
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10.8
Millions of people are summoned to the elections. 20% are undecided. -
very close
Barring an unexpected outcome, the formation that wins will be forced to seek alliances.
Behind the main formations, the polls place four parties at almost the same level, between 5% and 7% of voting intentions, with the far-right Chega (‘Basta’ in Portuguese) in the lead. In fact, since he entered Parliament in 2019 with a single seat, his popularity has increased so much that he could even become the third force in the country. Later, there would be the conservative Liberal Initiative and those who were allies of the socialists, the Bloco de Esquerda and the CDU, the coalition of communists and the Green Party. Finally, the animalistas of the PAN and Livre (left) would maintain 2% and 1%, respectively.
No absolute majority
The rise of the right and the socialist collapse have already predicted in recent weeks that the governing party will not foreseeably obtain an absolute majority, so that it will be forced to seek support to try to push through the Budgets in Parliament. If they do not reach agreements, Portugal will return to the same starting point that has led to the elections. According to a survey by the Catholic University, together, PS, Bloco and communists (the partners of the ‘geringonça’, the leftist pact that allowed the previous legislature to govern) would add 47% of the vote. The same data as the PSD and the right, without counting Chega’s ultras.
Therefore, the undecided (around 20%) and those confined for testing positive for coronavirus are the ones who will have the key in these elections. Together, they can reach almost 25% of the census, of some 10.8 million people. The average profile of the undecided is women, with an average age of 44 years.
On the other hand, the Portuguese authorities have asked to make it easier for those confined by covid to exercise their right. For this reason, last Sunday the vote was advanced in several centers throughout the country, with the added purpose of avoiding crowds today. More than 300,000 people signed up for this system.
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