The coalition that unites the left is the favorite in the elections to renew the General Assembly that will be held in the next two Sundays
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the new union of leftist parties (Nupes), has become the great enemy of the centrist president Emmanuel Macron ahead of the French legislative elections. These elections are held, in two rounds, this Sunday and the next to renew the 577 seats in the National Assembly, the lower house of the Gallic Parliament.
After defeating the far-right Marine Le Pen in the April presidential elections by less margin than in 2017, Macron and his ministers have now put Mélenchon in their sights. The prime minister, Élisabeth Borne, believes that the program of the leader of the union of the left would be “dire” for France; Amélie de Montchalin, holder of the Ecological Transition portfolio, accuses the leftist leader of having a “twin program of Marine Le Pen”, of “playing with fears” and not offering solutions to citizens; and Bruno Le Maire, head of the Economy area, describes Mélenchon as «Gallic Chávez».
The ‘unsubmissive’ leftist considers that these attacks show that “there is panic on board” in the ruling party. Macronistas are becoming nervous about the rise of left-wing candidates in the polls and the possibility that the president and his allies will not be able to achieve an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
IN ITS CONTEXT:
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577
seats in the National Assembly, the lower house of the Gallic Parliament, will be renewed this Sunday and the next after a double-round electoral process. -
An unusual alliance of progressives.
The New Popular Ecologist and Social Union (Nupes), created around the figure of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, brings together socialists, communists and greens in an unusual alliance of French progressives. -
A threat to the second legislature.
Mélenchon’s advance worries Macron, above all because it would complicate his governance. Majorities are forged in these elections that will later validate or hinder the president’s reforms.
Macron is not so concerned about Le Pen’s party in these elections, since, although he obtains good results at the national level, he always punctures in the legislative ones. The cordon sanitaire established in many constituencies prevents far-right candidates from being elected deputies.
Mélenchon, who came third in the first round of the presidential elections behind Macron and Le Pen, has achieved something that seemed impossible a few months ago: unite all the leftist parties to run together in the legislative elections. The New Popular, Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) brings together candidates from La Francia Insumisa, the Socialist Party, the Communist Party and Europe Ecology-The Greens (EELV).
The leader of La Francia Insumisa considers the legislative elections as “a third round” against Macron and invites the French to give a majority to the left in the National Assembly. Mélenchon dreams aloud of being Prime Minister of France. According to his calculations, if the left achieves an absolute majority in the lower house, Macron would be forced to put him at the head of the government. The leftist leader is pursuing cohabitation, the forced coexistence between a president and prime minister of different political persuasion.
Macron has asked the population to give him “a strong and clear majority” in Parliament. He reminded Mélenchon a few days ago that “the president chooses the person he appoints as prime minister by looking at Parliament”, but that “no political party can impose a name on the president”.
tight polls
According to the latest poll by Ipsos Sopra Steria for France TV and Radio France, the union of left-wing parties would obtain 28% of the vote in the first round. Ensemble (Together), which brings together Macron’s party and his allies, has a 27% voter intention. National Regroupment, Marine Le Pen’s party, would add 19.5% of the votes; Republicans, 11%; and Reconquest, led by ultra Éric Zemmour, 6%.
The results of the first round do not predict the number of seats that each formation will finally have in the National Assembly because the distribution of seats is not proportional. In reality, 577 local elections are held on a single day, as many as there are seats at stake. A candidate’s local roots can be key to being elected in a constituency, more than his political colours. To have an absolute majority, at least 289 elected officials are needed.
According to Ipsos projections, Macron’s party and its allies would win between 260 and 300 seats; and the union of lefts, between 175 and 215; the Republicans (moderate right) would achieve between 35 and 55, and Le Pen’s party between 20 and 50.
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