The economic reactivation settles as the vaccination rate advances and the pandemic begins to decline. The labor market is recovering from the onslaught of the coronavirus at a forced marches, with records in the rate of unemployment reduction and unprecedented job creation: in June there were 3,614,339 unemployed people, 166,911 less than in May, the largest drop in a historical series that began in 1996. The annual projection is equally promising, with 248,544 fewer people unemployed than in the same month of 2020 (-6.43%); and in seasonally adjusted terms the pinch Compared to the previous month, it is still considerable: there are 102,604 fewer unemployed persons.
The increase in the number of Social Security affiliations completes this album of optimism: in average terms and without seasonal adjustment, Social Security exceeded 19.5 million affiliates on average in June (19,500,277), 233,056 more contributors with compared to the average for May (1.21%). According to the data transferred this Friday by the Ministries of Labor and Social Security, all sectors improved their employment figures, highlighting among all of them that of services with an increase of 11.6% thanks to the lifting of restrictions.
The arrival of summer and the beginning of the tourist season have favored the recovery of the labor market. If the signals emitted by the data for May already announced a notable improvement – there was a decrease of 129,378 unemployed compared to the April data, the highest up to that moment – in June the curve has maintained this downward inertia. “It is the most relevant data in the history of democracy,” said the Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz. However, the third vice president has once again emphasized that the volume of the unemployed continues to be a worrying problem. “This structural strike does not create any particular tranquility, but the Government is undertaking all the necessary reforms to promptly address the dislocations that the labor market has been experiencing. The data give us a bit of hope to continue working with intensity ”, he added.
These good data confirm the forecasts that were launched from the presidency of the Government. Pedro Sánchez recently assured that the Executive expected GDP to grow 18% year-on-year between April and June. “We are going to have unprecedented numbers of economic growth this year and the next, the European and international institutions themselves are revising the forecasts for economic growth and job creation in our country even more upwards,” said Sánchez in an interview in the SER string. Consulted this Thursday by the forecast of reaching 19 and a half million affiliates, he assured that it was an important achievement “because in the previous crisis it took us ten years to recover the levels prior to the financial crisis.”
At the same time, from the Spanish Confederation of Business Organizations (CEOE), its president, Antonio Garamendi, predicted a few days ago “a spectacular drop” during the summer of the workers who are now in ERTE. It should be remembered that in the computation of the statistics of registered unemployment, employees covered by a temporary employment regulation file are not counted as unemployed.
Vaccines stimulate the return to activity, at the same time as good weather and the beginning of the summer season, in which a large number of hires are traditionally focused. Despite the fact that the prospects of many sectors, such as services, are still somewhat suspicious and try to keep their optimism in check, the truth is that the signs that the recovery is crystallizing are increasingly abundant. “We have a very broad spectrum recovery. We have a lot of dynamism in the labor market ”, said José Luis Escrivá, Minister of Social Security. “The set of measures that the Government has designed is having results that exceed our expectations and reveal the enormous interaction that occurs between social agents,” he completed.
The February roof
The comparative balance with the pre-pandemic situation shows the oxygenation of the labor market. In June 2019, the last June without the virus being affected, 3,020,000 unemployed were counted, and a year later, in the first summer viral cone the figure rose to 3,860,000. A scenario that worsened in February 2021, when the ceiling of the four million unemployed was broken. Since then, falls have been accumulating as the pandemic has seen its intensity diminish.
The fact that in the last extension of the ERTE due to coronavirus until September 30, the incentives for the reactivation of workers were expanded (they rose by 5% on average for all companies, regardless of their size) is also hidden behind this improvement. This is reflected in the Social Security statistics: June ended with 447,800 workers in ERTE, 43.1% of them concentrated in food and beverage services, and accommodation. This reactivation of the activity has also positively affected the self-employed, who in June reached 3,320,983 average affiliates, 13,045 more than the previous month.