Sánchez’s party is running for the 19-J elections with a candidate with a gray profile, the polls against it and its allies in chaos
There are 50 days left for the Andalusian elections and the forces of the right arrive at them with unbeatable expectations and those of the left, just the opposite. The PP and Vox have two solid candidates and their voting intention improves with each poll. The PSOE presents a head of the list that has not just stood out and the amalgamation of forces around Podemos lacks a visible face. The polls, in addition, point to a stagnation of both, if not a setback, of their electoral possibilities. With these wickers seven weeks before the voting, the only unknown that can be glimpsed is whether the popular will govern alone or with the extreme right formation.
A delicate panorama for the Socialists and for Pedro Sánchez, who risks suffering a historic defeat in a territory that for decades has been the largest granary of votes for his party. The PSOE has won all the regional elections in Andalusia, except for those of 2012, when the popular Javier Arenas, following the absolute majority of Mariano Rajoy, won the victory although he could not govern because the alliance of the Socialists with the United Left added more seats than the PP. Those of June 19, unless there is a spectacular turnaround, could be the second defeat and the confirmation of Juanma Moreno’s leadership.
In a national reading, Andalusia represents the community that contributes the most deputies to Congress, 61, and is, therefore, the territory where a good part of the victories in the general elections are based. The PSOE obtained in the last two, held in April and November 2019, 24 and 25 seats for 11 and 15 of the PP. If that primacy changes hands, an alternation that would not be surprising with the good reception that Alberto Núñez Feijóo has had and after Moreno’s triumph in the regional elections, Sánchez’s chances in the 2023 generals would suffer a serious setback.
The socialists, they recognize it themselves, do not arrive at the Andalusian elections at a good time. His candidate, the former mayor of Seville Juan Espadas, has to deal with limited popularity, a demobilized electorate and a PP based in the community. Sánchez’s reference, with a weakened government supported by United We Can and the Catalan and Basque independence parties, does not help the image of moderation cultivated by Espadas, who defines himself as a man of “centered left”.
The Socialists, in addition, can trip over the stone again, as happened to them in the last general elections, of directing their messages to try to seduce the 660,000 orphan voters of Citizens of the previous autonomous communities. But that fishing ground has already been fleeced by the PP and Vox, as was verified in the autonomous communities of Madrid and Castilla y León.
“Moreno-Olona”
Swords and his team are confident that the fear that the extreme right will enter the Andalusian Government will be a spur to their electorate, especially since the appointment of Macarena Olona as a Vox candidate. The Socialists have already launched the kind of “Moreno-Olona” candidacy, but it seems difficult for fear to take hold as a mobilizing element. The scant impact of the ghost of the extreme right was confirmed in the Madrid and Castilian-Leonese elections. Not to mention France.
Test for the generals
A good result in Andalusia is key to winning the next elections in 2023
The PSOE, in addition, finds no consolation on its left for a hypothetical coalition government. Podemos, Izquierda Unida, Más País, Equo, Alianza Verde and the Andalusian People’s Initiative have so far been unable to reach an agreement to present a common candidate and draw up joint lists. The purple ones try to place the deputy for Cádiz Juan Antonio Delgado, a trade unionist from the Civil Guard, but his allies resist. IU bets on its regional coordinator, Toni Valero. The calendar, meanwhile, is reduced and May 18 is the deadline for the presentation of candidacies.
Apart from these concerns, Adelante Andalucía has remained, which will appear alone with Teresa Rodríguez, a candidate for Podemos in the previous elections. Polls give him between zero and one seat. In short, a devilish scenario for the left and, above all, for Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE, who may suffer a full blown setback on June 19 that will set off, if it has not already done so, all alarms on Ferraz street.
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