The price of gold, one of the assets considered a refuge in times of crisis, is in an unstoppable race of increases, in which it has surpassed its records again and again, so that it has advanced more than 30% so far this year.
The gold metal surpassed the $2,790 per ounceits historical maximum, which at that time represented an annual increase of 35%.
Analysts attribute the rise in the price of gold to interest rate cut by the central banks, mainly the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve, to which is added the geopolitical situation and the economic uncertainty generated by the presidential elections that will be held on the 5th in the US.
However, at the end of the week, gold has undergone a correction and has moved away from its all-time highsomething that may change again next week with the elections in the US.
If during this year the price of an ounce of gold has gone from $2,058.96 on January 2 to the $2,790 it reached this week, which represents a increase close to 35%in the last 15 years the increase has been 150%.
If on December 31, 2009 the price per ounce was at 1,096.95 dollars, it is currently around $2,740.
The half-point cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve at its last meeting, and the three cuts carried out by the ECB this yearthe last two carried out consecutively have created the conditions for the prices of the gold metal to skyrocket.
Added to these factors are geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty around the US presidential elections.
Gold is considered a active refuge in periods of uncertainty because investors believe that its value always maintains better than that of other assets such as equities, fixed income, currencies or cryptocurrencies.
According to Swiss private bank analyst Julius Baer Carsten Menke, “gold’s notable rally appears much more driven by the market mood than by fundamental factors”.
For Menke, although the risk of a short-term setback for the gold price increases, there is still a solid context long term for this metal.
In his opinion, a further cooling of the US economy and the prospect of lower interest rates in that country could attract the market to more investors from the Western world.
In this sense, market analyst Joaquín Robles has pointed out that the demand for gold is growing in recent weeks due to the start of interest rate cuts.
Added to this is the uncertainty regarding the US elections, since the possible victory of the Republican Donald Trump, with more protectionist policies and a larger deficit could deteriorate US accounts, leading investors to take refuge in gold.
The advisor of the Alhaja Inversiones fund Araceli de Frutos highlights that the rise in the gold metal is occurring because it is a refuge asset in the midst of the existing volatility, to which is added the increase in demandmainly driven by central banks which are the main buyers of gold.
Central banks now have the 12.1% of world gold reservesthe highest level since the 1990s.
De Frutos considers that Bitcoin, unlike gold, is not a safe haven asset.but rather risky, and creates greater volatility in portfolios. EFECOM
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