One year from the presidential election, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is politically defeated. She will never say it, and may not even process it that way, but she is. Their morning have become an electrocardiogram of your frustrations and impotencewhich seeks to compensate or hide with attacks to their predecessors, but with less and less force, because the credibility of his speech is weakening. After all, how can you continue to see the rear-view mirror when you have been in government for just over four and a half years? The lies of the President Lopez Obrador His loudspeakers continue to reproduce them, but the data and its context tell another story, the one that will settle accounts with him when he leaves power. For example, in terms of security.
Lopez Obrador no longer endured the pressure of the media that have recorded the debacle of his security strategyand acknowledged that so far in the six-year term, the number of intentional homicides exceeded the total that the governments of Felipe Calderon and Enrique Pena Nieto in six yearsbut said, by way of justification, which was the result of a “bad inheritance”. he is right but handwashing in this way, it is irresponsible. The legacy of the Peña Nieto government was tragic, with an increasing number of crimes, derived from a policy that López Obrador copied, not confronting the drug cartels because, both argued, the violence breeds more violence.
Peña grandson listened to the uninformed and inept analysis of outside advisers, who argued that if they stopped fighting the criminals the violence that, they alleged, had triggered it would be reduced Calderon through its Secretary of Public Safety, Genaro Garcia Luna. Peña Nieto lacked a good diagnosis, but López Obrador’s blindness was more serious, since he did not see what his predecessor did, and in a superficial and absolutely banal way, he said through his first Secretary of Security, Alfonso Durazostated that he would stop the wave of violence in six months, and that from 2019, there would be a turning point.
That point never came. López Obrador, but to continue acting like an ostrich, he said that the escalation of murders came from the past To support his statement, he released a graph “Comparison of Homicide 1990-2023”, which, if read in context, explains very well the spiral of violence, which began in December 2006, with Calderón’s arrival at the Presidencywho unlike the government of vincent foxat the request of the then governor of Michoacán, the PRD member and today a Morenista Lazaro Cardenasthe war on drugs.
Until then, successive Mexican governments had administered the drug trafficking hitting one or two cartels for six years, in exchange for not filling the streets with blood. That rationale began to break down in 1996, when the Colombian cartels began to pay the transfer of cocaine to USA in kind, for which internal markets were created for their consumption, while the then head of the Juarez cartel, Beloved Carrillohe drug dealer most powerful of his time, he founded the system of places and criminal quotas for the drug transit.
When the calling dies Lord of the Skies in 1997, strong criminal leaderships emerged and began to fight among themselves, and their quality of fire increased significantly after 1994, when the ban on the sale of assault weapons expired without the President George W. Bush I will renew it. The control of territories and domination of squares turned Michoacan and Warrior in the main areas of drug warwhich caused the concern of the United States, and a meeting of the head of the DEA with President-elect Calderón, García Luna and Eduardo Medina Morawho was going to be attorney general in that government, and who organized the meeting in Cuernavaca, where he presented the diagnosis he had Washington.
The strategy, developed by García Luna, was the combat to all cartels alike, who had proven successful in Colombia and the United States, whose mechanics resembled a race against the organized crime, and how quickly they could decapitate them and take down their operation, vis-a-vis the speed with which they could recruit new cadres. The strategy had an externality due to the ambition of municipal governments that instead of strengthening their police to fight the gangs that emerged from the atomization of criminal organizations, used the resources for public works. However a real turning point.
In the graph that López Obrador showed, that point is in May 2011, the month when the Calderón government reversed the trend of the intentional homicides. The inertia of that fall helped the government of Peña Nieto, despite the fact that he stopped fighting them and favored the creation of paramilitary groups in Michoacan, the self defensesome of which were manipulated by the Sinaloa cartelto liquidate The Michoacan FamilyThe graph shows the success of Calderón’s strategy, squandered by Peña Nieto for his policy of hugs, not bulletswhich when coupled with the entry into force of the new accusatory penal system in 2016, the violence began to escalate uncontrollably.
Peña Nieto corrected his strategy, but it was already too late. The cursed inheritance that he received from the Peña Nieto government was a total of 36,685 intentional homicides. However, everything got worse. The worst year in intentional homicide is 2020, with a total of 36,685, even though it has been proven that there is a manipulation of data, having reclassified intentional homicides precisely to prevent the figures show reality of the phenomenon, More serious of what is recognized.
López Obrador politicized security to hit his predecessors, and reality has defeated him. The lies and the misrepresentation of reality will end up being reversed. His handling has been terrible against Calderón, and against the baddest of all, it was worse.
twitter: @rivapa
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