The PP would win the regional elections with 19 deputies if the elections are held now, although, to govern, it would need the support of the eight seats that Vox would obtain, according to the ‘Barometer of the Region of Murcia-May 2022’ prepared by the Spanish Observatory Demoscopic Studies (Obede) of the San Antonio Catholic University of Murcia (UCAM).
Specifically, the PP would obtain 19 deputies with 38.6% of the votes for its candidacy, which represents growth compared to the 16 seats obtained in the last elections in May 2019; while Vox would double its representation with eight seats (16.2% of the votes), four deputies more than in the last elections of 2019.
For its part, the PSOE would get 14 seats if the vote is held today (28.6% of the votes), three deputies less than in 2019; while United We Can obtain 3 deputies (6.3% of the votes), which is one more than three years ago. For its part, Cs would retain a single deputy compared to the six that it obtained in the last elections. These results would occur in an electoral call with an abstention of 40.9%, which would represent an increase compared to the 37.67% of the 2019 elections.
Within what could be called the ‘leftist bloc’, United We Can rise a few tenths, reaching three deputies (one more than in the last elections). In the last barometer (carried out a year ago), Más País snatched one of those three seats, but now that effect is fading, disappearing the representation of Más País to return its votes to UP.
The PP (19 seats) would obtain more representation than the sum of PSOE, UP and Cs (18 seats), but would remain four deputies short of the absolute majority, so Vox would be decisive for the governability of the Region of Murcia.
This formation would double its presence, going from the four deputies it achieved in the last elections to eight (same number as in last year’s barometer), although it is growing towards nine seats. For this reason, the barometer indicates that Vox is positioned as the “essential key” to form a government, either supporting it externally or being part of it.
ups and downs
Vox is the formation that registers the highest growth, 6.7%, which would allow it to double its representation in the Assembly, going from four to eight deputies. It is followed by the PP with 6.1% compared to the results of the 2019 regional elections, translating into an increase of three deputies, to reach 19.
Finally, United We Can experience a slight advance (+0.7%) compared to the last autonomic ones, which translates into an increase in its parliamentary presence, going from two to three deputies.
As for the decreases, Ciudadanos does not show signs of recomposition, since in the Obede work of May 2021 it lost 72% of its voters compared to the regional ones of 2019, and collapsed 8.6% (of the total votes issued), while in the current study it lost an additional tenth (-8.7%).
The PSOE, which went from winning the regional elections (17 seats) to registering a collapse of 5.5 points in the Barometer of May 2021, now recovers 1.4 points with respect to it, moderating its loss of adhesions in relation to the appointment of 2019 (-4.1%).
High abstention
Another noteworthy fact is the growth in abstention, which stands at 40.9%, more than three points above that which occurred in the 2019 elections (37.67%), an indicator of the disaffection of society towards politics and a “worrying fact in terms of democratic quality”, as the authors of the barometer point out.
The high rate of abstention is particularly noticeable among young people between 18 and 30 years of age, since 48.6% respond that they do not intend to vote, while it is higher than 40% in the groups between 31 and 44 years of age and 45 to 64 years old.
Popular Party voters are mainly concentrated in those over 45 years of age, a case similar to the support of the PSOE. For its part, Vox has its largest niche of votes in young and middle-aged people, between 31 and 45 years old, a characteristic shared by the Ciudadanos electorate. Podemos and Más País (although the latter does not reach representation) have their largest pool of votes among the youngest voters (18 to 30 years old).
alliances
A “strong” 68.7% of those surveyed believe that the PSOE should disassociate itself from United We Can in the coalition government that they maintain at the national level, compared to 18.2% who are in favor of its continuity, according to the barometer.
This position is even shared by the majority (57.9%) of those who declare themselves voters of the Socialist Party. In contrast, only UP voters (77.1%) support this coalition, while those of the PP (91.1%), Cs (86.8%), VOX (100%) and the PSOE itself reject it ( 57.9%), while 31.2% of its voters advocate its continuity).
Asked about which government they believe would be more effective in solving the problems that afflict Spain, 25.7% estimate that a government alone from the PP, and 25.5% a government alone from the PSOE. The rest is divided into minority options of governments alone or other coalitions.
Leader Qualification
The national leaders of the most representative parties generally obtain a low score from the voters of the Region of Murcia. Only one of them approves, the leader of the PP, Nuñez Feijóo, who obtains a score of 5.1, half a point higher than the score accredited by the general secretary of the PSOE, Pedro Sánchez (4.6), which does not evolve in the comparison with its assessment in the May 2021 barometer.
Neither does the leader of Cs, Inés Arrimadas, stagnant at a score of 3.2, the same as Santiago Abascal (Vox) and Yolanda Díaz (UP), with Íñigo Errejón (Más País) being the worst rated (2.7) for the Murcians.
Of the leaders who remain in office a year after the last barometer, in May 2021, the president of the regional PP Fernando López Miras is the best known by the citizens of the Region, with a 97.5% popularity rating, growing two points compared to May 2021.
Both the leader of Vox, José Ángel Antelo, and that of Podemos, Javier Sánchez Serna, see their popularity diminished. Thus, Antelo was known a year ago by 70.3% of the citizenry and today it is by 59.2%, while the leader of the purple formation was known by 65.4% of the population in May 2021 and today it is familiar to 59.2% of those surveyed.
For his part, the general secretary of the PSRM, José Vélez, who reaches a popularity of 88.8% and is thus the second best-known leader among Murcians, makes his debut in the barometer. However, his popularity rank is still lower than that obtained in last year’s barometer by his predecessor in the General Secretariat of the regional PSOE, Diego Conesa, who became known in May 2021 by 90.9% of the population.
As far as it affects the leader of Ciudadanos, María José Ros Olivo, she is known by 61.8% of the population, well below the 76.5% that in May 2021 knew her predecessor in the leadership of Ciudadanos Ana Martínez Vidal. No leader manages to pass, and those who remain in office -López Miras, Sánchez Serna, Antelo- lower their score compared to that of the May 2021 barometer.
In this edition, López Miras remains one tenth of the approved (4.9), despite which he heads the podium as the most valued of the Murcian leaders currently (in May 2021 it was 5.5 points). The general secretary of the PSOE, José Vélez, is second with a score three tenths lower than that of the regional president (4.6). Ros Olivo would get a 3.5, and both Antelo and Sánchez Serna would get a 3.3.
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