Global warming will exceed 2.7 ° C the pre -industrial levels around 2100, even if all countries fulfill the current commitments of the Paris Agreement. This is the conclusion of a new research published in the magazine Science, in which irreversible changes on the planet and generalized alterations in ecosystems are also noticed.
The climate treaty was agreed by the member countries of the United Nations Organization (UN) in 2015. It establishes that, to contain the effects of climate change, it is necessary to maintain the increase in the average world temperature below 2 and 1.5 ° C regarding the estimated average between 1850 and 1900. The Copernicus climate change service confirmed last month that 2024 became the first year to overcome this threshold. This does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, since the agreement refers to a sustained increase for decades and not to a period of 12 months.
Despite this, the New job Directed by TED Schuur, Professor of Ecosystem Ecology at the University of Northern Arizona, predicts that the world will heat 2.7 ° C above the reference values if significant changes in environmental policies are not made. “This is a verification of reality. We took a first step by signing the Paris Agreement, but we are already living in a ‘changed world’. It is time to advance and adjust the climatic objectives to adapt to this new context, ”he says.
The specialist and his colleagues suggest that the heating of 1.5 ° C reached last year is closely related to what happens in the Arctic Circle. The region is heated almost four times faster than the rest of the world, due to the loss of icy surfaces.
The study indicates that Arctic’s sea ice used to have an annual freezing and melting cycle. The increase in global temperature has altered this pattern and now a greater proportion of frozen masses is melted, which creates a vicious circle that contributes to heating. Without these icy layers, the ocean surface absorbs more heat.
The phenomenon is also causing modifications in the mainland of the Arctic. Vast extensions of permafrost They have defrosted, releasing large amounts of carbon stored by millennia. Scientists expect that, as temperatures continue to increase, this decomposition organic matter will release carbon dioxide and methane levels comparable to the emissions of the large industrialized nations.
“We are talking about a place that is remote to many people, but changes in the Arctic do not stay there. Last summer, Phoenix had 70 days with extreme and unusual temperatures. That is mainly due to emissions derived from human activities, but anomaly accelerated due to additional greenhouse gases (GHG) from the Arctic, ”according to Schuur.
The Paris Agreement is not enough
The specialist indicates that these phenomena were not considered with sufficient rigor in the calculations of the Paris Agreement. It emphasizes that humanity has the collective task of making communities more resilient to the climatic crisis and further reduce GHG emissions. “We cannot prevent the changes that are already happening. But we can stop them and improve their management so that people and ecosystems are better prepared for the future, ”he emphasizes.
Various international organizations insist on the urgency of increasing investments in climate adaptation. A report by the United Nations Environment Program estimates that the financial deficit in this area ranges between 194,000 and 366,000 million dollars annually. The figure could be greater due to the positions taken by some nations.
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