The planet has already accumulated 12 consecutive months of completely out of control ocean temperatures

On March 31, 2023, the average ocean surface temperature shot up to the maximum recorded up to that time for that same day of the year. And so it has continued ever since, at daily record levels. There are almost 12 months of runaway sea temperatures that have scientists worried and looking for explanations that include many variables, although all theories start from a common denominator: the global warming that the planet suffers due to human action and the gases that They basically expel fossil fuels.

“It gives respect,” admits Carlo Buontempo, director of the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service. It refers to the temperatures that are being observed in the areas of the Atlantic where cyclones form and to the next hurricane season, which begins at the end of spring. Because warm waters provide fuel for these types of storms. The heat accumulated by the sea also damages “vital ecosystems and food systems” for humans, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has also warned, which this Tuesday presented its report on the state of the climate for 2023. As already was known, last year was the warmest recorded on Earth as a whole since records began in the 19th century (although many paleoclimatic scientists maintain that we have to go back several millennia to find a planet this warm).

But that big headline — 2023 the hottest year on record — sometimes overshadows other worrying data. “The values ​​observed for all the main indicators have set off all the alarms. Some of them not only break records, but also record unprecedented magnitudes. And the changes continue to accelerate,” said the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, this Tuesday. “Climate change goes far beyond temperatures. “What we witness in 2023, especially in relation to warming oceans, retreating glaciers and the unprecedented loss of Antarctic sea ice, is of particular concern,” added WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. .

The WMO explains in its report that “the heat content of the oceans in 2023 was the highest on record, exceeding the value of 2022.” He emphasizes that this is not an isolated event, but that “all data sets agree that ocean warming rates show a particularly strong increase in the last two decades.” But 2023—and the remainder of 2024—shows a special anomaly.

The average ocean temperature is now half a degree above normal, taking the average between the period 1991-2020 as a reference point. At the beginning of this March, when the absolute mark for average daily temperature was broken and reached 21.09 degrees, the anomaly was almost one degree, according to data from the Copernicus Climate Purse service, which focuses on the analysis of sea surface temperature for coordinates 60°S-60°N, that is, excluding polar areas.

What is the reason for these 12 consecutive record months? The WMO points out that “different factors driving this change are discussed in the literature, including a change in anthropogenic climate forcing and natural variability.” Buontempo maintains that it is possibly a combination of both factors. “Some studies point to an acceleration of the imbalance between the energy that reaches the planet and that which is expelled,” says this expert. That is, an acceleration of global warming. “Hotter seas could be a sign of that acceleration,” he adds. “Other hypotheses maintain that with certain global warming, these extremes are due to normal fluctuations, such as The boy or solar radiation. And maybe it could be a combination of both, but, clearly, it is not good news.”

The positive part is that The boy, a natural pattern that causes water surface temperatures in tropical areas of the Pacific to rise and is affecting many parts of the globe, is weakening. “At the end of the summer it could be established The girl“, the opposite phenomenon, indicates Buontempo. But in reality, record ocean temperatures are occurring at almost all latitudes and not just in the Pacific. “It is difficult to find a place on the planet where there are no anomalies,” acknowledges the director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

This is not only a problem of high average temperatures, but also of extreme events, such as marine heat waves. The WMO explains that these types of events “have become more frequent, intense and long-lasting since the end of the 20th century,” while marine cold waves “have been decreasing.” “In 2023, it is worth highlighting the persistence and widespread diffusion of marine heat waves in the North Atlantic, which began in the spring of the northern hemisphere, peaked in September and persisted until the end of the year,” the report notes. report presented this Tuesday. These phenomena reached anomalies of more than three degrees in this area of ​​the Atlantic. But the situation has been widespread: “more than 90% of the ocean had experienced heat waves at some point” in 2023.

Ice and glacier loss

Another indicator of the climate crisis is the reduction and loss of glaciers, associated with increasing temperatures. According to the WMO, “the global set of reference glaciers suffered the largest ice loss ever recorded (since 1950), as a result of extreme melting in both western North America and Europe.” Furthermore, “the extent of Antarctic sea ice was by far the lowest on record.” This is another indicator of climate change that already leaves a trace that will last for hundreds and thousands of years, as is the case with the loss of ice.

“The climate crisis is the essential challenge facing humanity and is closely interrelated with the inequality crisis, as witnessed by the increase in food insecurity and population displacements, and the loss of biodiversity,” he highlighted through a statement Saul. His organization's report notes that “the number of people suffering from acute food insecurity around the world has more than doubled, from 149 million people before the Covid-19 pandemic to 333 million people in 2023. ″. “Weather and climate extremes may not be the underlying cause, but they are aggravating factors,” the WMO explained. Furthermore, “weather hazards continued to cause displacement in 2023.”

But this organization linked to the UN also wanted to talk about “a ray of hope”, when referring to the “generation of renewable energy”. “In 2023, additions of renewable capacity increased by almost 50% compared to 2022, rising to a total of 510 gigawatts (GW), which represents the highest rate observed in the last two decades.” These types of technologies, such as solar and wind, do not emit greenhouse gases when generating energy, unlike fossil fuels.

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