Electoral political polls today March 22, 2023
POLITICAL ELECTION SURVEYS – The growth of the new Elly Schlein-branded Democratic Party continues, arriving less than ten points behind the Brothers of Italy. This was revealed by the latest survey carried out by swg for La7, which sees Giorgia Meloni’s party firmly in first place with 30.3 percent of the votes, unchanged compared to the previous week. For the Democratic Party, the difference was instead 0.6 points, which project the dem at 20.4 percent.
The 5-star Movement is still in decline, losing 0.8 points, thus falling to 15.3 percent. The League is also down, reaching 8.5 percent after a drop of 0.3 points. The Action/Italia viva distance shortens, which stands at 7.7 percent (+0.2%), while Forza Italia drops to 6.3 percent (-0.1%). The Alliance Verdi/Italian Left is stable at 3.2 percent while it gains 0.3 points + Europe, now at 2.5 percent. Followed by Unione Popolare at 1.8 percent and the list “Per l’Italia con Compagone” at 1.7 percent.
Confidence in Giorgia Meloni is still declining: from the highs of December, when the share of those who said they had “a lot” or “enough” confidence in the Prime Minister was 45 percent, today the index has dropped to 40 percent. She also drops perceptions of government effectiveness. Only 39 percent rate the government as “very” or “fairly” effective, up from 50 percent in October.
HOW POLLS ARE DONE
Electoral and political polls are carried out by polling companies according to precise scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analysed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for political parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the adult Italian population, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls. This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible. Generally a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the indicated margin of error is 3 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that the pollsters face the greatest difficulty. Interviews for electoral political polls are usually carried out with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion poll companies rely on specialized companies.
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