Except for surprise, the passage through the polls would not imply a change in the political sign of the Executive, something almost unprecedented in the long history of early elections in the country
António Costa’s cabinet begins to press the accelerator in search of the electoral advance. Three days after the Portuguese president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, reveals whether he calls the general elections or allows the current Executive to continue its activity in a situation of extreme weakness – an option that is practically discarded -, several voices have been raised in favor of resetting the Portuguese policy as soon as possible. There is urgency. Politics, on the part of the parties, to organize themselves before an urgent and immediate call, since the polls would be mounted in the second half of January. And economical. Above all, economical.
The minister of the branch, Pedro Siza Vieira, was very clear on Friday when asking De Sousa to order the dissolution of Parliament “as quickly as possible” to minimize the “risks” and the consequences of the “political disturbance” on the economy. The rupture of relations between the Socialist Party and its allies of the Bloco de Esquerda and the Communist Party has occurred at a difficult time, with the country on the way out of the pandemic and pending receipt of European funds from the revitalization plan. “Employment will grow and the economy will continue to recover,” predicted Siza in a message addressed especially to the EU.
Known terrain
The Government is aware that it is on uncertain terrain, but not strange. In case the president decides to call the polls next Wednesday, this will be the eighth electoral advance in the country since the 1970s. In one of them, after the resignation of conservative Francisco Pinto Balsemão due to the crisis that then the right lived, Mario Soares won without a majority and that was the only time in Portuguese political history in which there was a coalition between the socialists and the center-right PSD. The so-called Central Bloc barely lasted two years. Only on one occasion, the elections did not imply a change of ideological sign at the head of the Executive.
The slogan at this time is: “If the left does not vote, the right will vote and win.” It is the opinion expressed in the newspaper ‘Público’ by the Secretary of State for Parliamentary Affairs, Duarte Cordeiro, who after the door slammed by the Bloco and the communists to António Costa warns that the future may be much worse than the last six years of tuning in the left. The polls attribute to the Bloco a notable decrease in votes, which would partially benefit the communists. But what is really worrying is the expected rise of the extreme right, which, if the polls are correct, could be the third force in the Assembly.
The paradox is that everything is on the way to change to stay the same. With a fragmented Chamber, in a trend that is already worldwide, the PS will have to reconcile with those former partners who turned their backs on Wednesday in the approval of the Budgets. Everything points to the fact that, when the time comes, candidate Costa will not exhibit so much the belligerent stance with the parties further to the left that he showed in the 2019 campaign and will adopt a conciliatory tone. At the moment, the party is already working on a program that includes the economic and social measures that the Government included in the General Budgets, plus those of its former partners that they opposed in the negotiations.
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