The war in Ukraine and the international response will be a decisive factor in the world political and economic order for the next decade. In particular, the Western alliance’s actions, narratives, and plans in relation to Russia and the role of the Global South in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction will act as indicators of those long-term strategic goals.
Does the West only want to see Russia defeated and NATO enlarged and strengthened, or is it capable of imagining a “victory” in Ukraine that lays the foundations for a world where democracy is more protected and global governance is more inclusive and effective?
Although the outcome of the fighting is still uncertain, the West’s strategic goals (particularly its treatment of Russia, if Ukraine emerges victorious) will have immense consequences. The big question is whether the allies will seek to punish Russia by imposing serious remedial measures, or instead target only the autocratic regime of President Vladimir Putin in ways that limit the costs to the Russian people.
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At the beginning of the war, the western alliance stressed that its main objectives were to defend the Charter of the United Nations and democracy. A few months later, some US strategists and officials advocated the permanent weakening of Russia, although the continuation of this objective is not clear, if there were a regime change in Moscow.
Any comprehensive solution to the conflict in Ukraine demands that Russia bear part of the cost of reconstruction caused by a war that it started. The severity of the terms imposed on the Russian people will have political ramifications. The tougher they are, the greater the likelihood that Russia will move even closer to China and the post-war geopolitical order will include the presence of a strong Sino-Russian bloc.
The importance of that alliance should not be underestimated. Although its center of gravity would be China, the relative smallness of Russia’s GDP (less than Italy’s) should not make us forget Russia’s scientific capabilities, the size of its nuclear arsenal, its wealth of resources and the strategic importance of its vast territory. .
divide the world
in democracies and autocracies it is a mistake. a key element for any successful diplomatic strategy is to distinguish between the political leadership
and ordinary citizenship
If the democracies strive to differentiate the treatment of the Russian people from that of Putin and his autocracy, they may be able to avoid a long-term outcome in which Russia is “lost” to them. Banning all Russians from entering the European Union, as some propose, is the kind of move that will push the country in the direction of China.
Dividing the world into democracies and autocracies is a mistake belonging to the same ineffective and polarizing manual. In the relationship with dictatorships like Putin’s, a key element of any successful diplomatic strategy is to distinguish between the political leadership and the ordinary citizenry.
It is true that Russia’s veto power in the Security Council prevented the United Nations from coordinating measures against Russian aggression in Ukraine. But in taking on that task, the Western alliance did not bother to consult the Global South for decision-making and did not involve it in the post-war planning process.
Of course, it is also true that much of the Global South abstained from voting on two major UN General Assembly resolutions against Russia in March. However, the West should understand that the response of developing countries to the war was due to old ingrained reflexes. Specifically, the bitter collective memory of European colonialism and the memories of the support that the Soviet Union gave to many of those countries during the struggles for independence.
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Likewise, the Lugano conference, organized by the Western alliance in early July to launch a platform for the reconstruction of Ukraine, did not include any countries from the Global South. Some will say that it was more of a meeting of donors, although it excluded the rich states of the Gulf, and included countries like Albania and North Macedonia that will hardly be able to make any contribution.
The reconstruction of Ukraine may cost up to a billion dollars. Such an effort threatens to divert significant amounts of aid to the Global South, that still cannot get rich countries to fulfill the old promise of providing one hundred billion dollars a year to collaborate with mitigation and adaptation measures against climate change in poor nations.
It also remains to be seen to what extent the bidding rules for reconstruction projects in Ukraine will allow effective participation of non-donor developing countries.
But perhaps the West is still in time to involve the Global South, in particular states like South Africa and India, which have technical capabilities in some sectors, in Ukraine’s reconstruction. In addition, developing countries must be included in setting rules on possible remaining sanctions against Russia after the first phase of a settlement of the conflict and in regulations regarding frozen Russian assets.
If Ukraine emerges victorious, it will be on the West’s treatment of Russia and its attitude towards the Global South during Ukrainian reconstruction that the outcome of the war will drive global progress towards a more inclusive and equitable multilateralism. The worst that can happen is that the West wins a Pyrrhic victory that ends up reinforcing the autocracy and further deepening global divisions.
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Analysis by KEMAL DERVIS, former Minister of Economic Affairs of Turkey, administrator of the United Nations Development Program and member of the Brookings Institution.
© Project Syndicate.
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