The objective of Spain should be to “have surplus” and not only meet Brussels, economists warn

A day after the government congratulated the public debt data released yesterday by the Bank of Spain, the General Council of Economists (CGE) has thrown water into the news by stating that with the current rhythm of Growth presented by the Spanish economy The objective should be the surplus and not simply comply with Europe.

At the end of 2024, the public debt was in the record of 1.62 billion euros, 2.9% more than in the same month of the previous year. However, in terms of ratio with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) it remained at 101.8%, 3.3 percentage points less than in 2023 and below 102.5% to which the Government had committed with Brussels.

“The public debt data is very good news,” said Valentín Pich, before adding that economists “see the half empty bottle.” For the president of the CGE, the Spanish debt continues to be surprised by its inability to place themselves at levels that allow the surplus even when the Spanish economy advances at a rate four times higher than the Eurozone. «It is still surprising that the objective is to meet the European Union when it should be surplus. We are a bit alarmed that the challenge is not to have surplus «, Pich has settled.

However, council estimates point to a public deficit of 2.8% of GDP in 2025, three tenths more than government estimates, and a public debt of 101.9% of GDP this year.

Regarding the solutions to the problem, economists have insisted that Spain should take advantage of the good moment that their economy is experiencing to make the reforms that allane the way for growth maintenance. “Above all, we must improve in competitiveness, productivity and regulatory stability,” Salvador Marín, director of the CGE Studies Service, has pointed out. For this economist, the Executive Structural Fiscal Plan rests too much on economic growth when it should do so in the reforms.

Take advantage of growth to make reforms

Along the same lines, Antonio Pedraza, president of the CGE Financial Commission, has pointed to the need for “structural reforms” and the difficulty of applying them due to electoral cycles. “That is the problem of four -year legislatures,” he has settled.

This does not mean that the conclusions of all economists of the Council with the data at the close of 2024 have been positive; It could not be otherwise because our country closed the year to the head of growth in Europe (3.2% in terms of GDP)with inflation in aware figures (2.8% although in an upward trend in the final part of the year) and a unemployment rate that was reduced to 10.6%. By 2025, the CGE foresees that GDP will grow 2.4% and inflation will be around 2.2%.

On the challenges facing our economy, experts have highlighted the excessive dependence on tourismthe slowdown in investment, the slow recovery of private consumption, the housing crisis, the eternal inability to improve unemployment data that remain the highest in the OECD or the bad productivity data, which has shown a fall in the -0.78% in the second quarter of 2024, after an increase of 1.18% in the first, consolidating the negative trend observed in 2022 and 2023.

Specifically, Valentín Pich has referred to the reduction of the day posed by the Government as one of the measures «that raise challenges for competitiveness, for the possible effects on labor costs, so we must try to achieve a high consensus to manage them ». Then there are the increases in the contributions carried out by the Government of Pedro Sánchez. »We bet that the taxable bases are widened and not load on the contributions that are already in employment. We want active policy for the promotion of employment, “explained Salvador Marín. Regarding the labor market, The estimation of the CGE is that in 2025 unemployment will fall to 10.4% “Whenever the tour of tourism is maintained.”