In the world of predictionsthere are figures who have gained notoriety for their supposed abilities to anticipate future events. From the celebrated Bulgarian seer Baba Vanga, known for her enigmatic and often disturbing prophecies, to the mysterious texts of Nostradamus, these figures have captured the public’s attention. However, in the American political spherea name resonates strongly for its impressive success record: historian Allan Lichtman. Known as the ‘Nostradamus’ of the american electionsLichtman has developed a unique system what has accurately predicted the outcome of almost all presidential elections in the last 40 years and has shared his forecast for the 2024 elections between Kamala Harris anddonald trump in an interview with the ‘New York Post’. With his particular method, known as «The keys to the White House», the expert has revealed who has the advantage in the contest between the two favorites.
Lichtman, whose methodology He has been right in almost all the presidential elections Since 1984, it has used a series of 13 affirmations known as ‘keys’ to determine the possible winner. These keys are formulated in true or false formatand its result provides a clear indication of who will win. If a candidate accumulates six or more keyshe is projected as the victor.
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1
Party mandate
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2
Contest
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3
Incumbency
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4
Third
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5
short term economy
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6
Long-term economy
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7
Policy change
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8
Social unrest
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9
Scandal
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10
Military/foreign failure
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11
Military/foreign success
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12
Charisma of the owner
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13
Challenger Charisma
Lichtman’s prediction
In his most recent analysis, revealed in the ‘New York Post’, Lichtman points out that the Democratic Partywith Kamala Harris as a candidate, currently has six of the 13 keys. Among these are the keys to the primary electionsthe short and long term economy, policy change, absence of scandals and lack of charisma in the challenger.
Biden’s withdrawal cost Democrats the Incumbency Key on my 13 Keys to the White House prediction system. But the excitement generated by his endorsement of VP Harris makes it very likely that they retain the Contest Key as she becomes the consensus nominee.
— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) July 23, 2024
On the other hand, the republicansrepresented by donald trumphave three keys in your favor: having won the majority in the House during the 2022 midterm elections, which the current president (Joe Biden) do not seek re-election and the lack of charisma of the owner.
However, There are still four keys to be definedwhich means that Trump and his team still they have a chance to change the outcome of the elections. Democrats, however, would only need to lose three keys for their prospects of victory to fade under Lichtman’s model. These remaining keys include the impact of a third partyhe social unresta possible military/foreign failure and the military/foreign success. In this sense, Lichtman has highlighted the importance of the “third party” key this year, especially for the independent candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Despite the uncertainty about the remaining keys, Lichtman expressed in an interview with ‘News Nation’ that “many things would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.”
Finally, the historian, who successfully predicted Trump’s victory in 2016 and Biden’s victory in 2020plans to reveal its final forecast after the Democratic National Conventionwhich will be held from August 19 to 22. Until then, the 2024 presidential race remains open, but Lichtman’s formula already offers a first glimpse of the possible outcome.
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