Contagions are growing everywhere: drop in immune protection, abandonment of restrictions with greater mobility and spread of BA. 2 among the causes that push the sixth wave
The Covid pandemic is far from over. At least in Europe. In the last two weeks, infections have been rising: the new Covid wave has begun, but it is not yet very clear why. Doctor Eric Topoldirector of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, in the United States speculated that generalized case growth could mark the beginning of a sixth wave. There are definitive signs of a new wave starting in many European countriessome of which are even showing a increase in Covid hospitalizations. It is difficult, at this point, to determine the cause: the elimination or reduction of restrictions, the increased transmissibility of BA.2 or the decreased immune protection of vaccines. The different factors almost certainly work together.
The next wave in Europe has begun pic.twitter.com/2qm4JzOqit
– Eric Topol (@EricTopol) March 12, 2022
Why are many countries in Europe starting to ascend again?
? Relaxed mitigation measures
? BA.2’s higher transmission
? Waning of immunity
There’s no clear or consistent pattern to determine which (or all) of these factors are driving it; no new variants have been implicated pic.twitter.com/IcwqQzL4lt– Eric Topol (@EricTopol) March 13, 2022
All over Europe probably Omicron 2 is pushing a new increase in cases but, although in some situations slight increases in hospital admissions have been reported, for now no country is on alert. In the United Kingdom the climb began as early as the end of February and today there are about 65,000 new cases per day. Since the beginning of March, the cases have also been rising in Denmark And Franceas well as in Germany that even matters 300 thousand cases a day.
Closing with the pandemic would be nice: but it is not a switch that can be turned off when you are tired and so is Italy, which the state of emergency will end on March 31stis following the European trend: infections are growing but we must wait another ten days to understand if hospitalizations and intensive care will also grow (today’s Agenas report reports that intensive care is stable at 5% and employment of beds in non-critical area at 13%).
The dissemination of BA.2
In Denmark and the UK, where the BA.2 variant is prevalent, studies conducted so far hypothesize one contagiousness greater than 30% compared to the Micron original, already highly transmissible. The data are still preliminary but if this were the case we would be faced with the most contagious virus ever to appear on the planet, with an R0 between 15 and 18: in the absence of countermeasures an infected person could infect another 15-18, more than measles. This extreme transmissibility broadens the audience of susceptible people.
We do not know when it is really widespread in Italy BA.2: the last flash survey of the Istituto Superiore di Sanit dates back to January 31 last and he spoke of 3% but by now too much time has passed and it is likely that the sub-variant is much more present on the Italian territory. Certainly in Umbria, where Covid cases are on the rise, Omicron 2 was identified in 60% of 56 swabs sequenced last March 7. Not mentioned that BA.2 may actually lead a new wave of infections, but it could slow the decline.
The good news is that anyone infected with Omicron it should be protected by BA2: the new sub-variant would not be able to circumvent acquired immunity, at least in the short term. L’World Health Organization stated that infection with Omicron provides strong protection against BA.2 infection.
Relaxation
The general relaxation And the abandonment of many of the restrictions in Europe (including the farewell to indoor masks in some countries) they may have contributed to the trend of new infections (as had already happened in the United States every time security measures are relaxed). The virologist Roberto Burioni
in his lesson at Che Tempo che fa broadcast Sunday evening on Rai Tre with Fabio Fazio, he reported the example ofHolland where the Catholic population living in the South celebrates Carnival with great emphasis. Ten days after the Carnival, the regions where there was a higher incidence of disease were where the Carnival was celebrated, where there were occasions of contagion. The same thing happened in Cologne, Germany, where after the celebrations there was a 56% increase in cases, with peaks of 110% among the twenty-year-olds, who celebrated with greater contagiousness.
The decline in vaccinations
In Italy, new vaccinations dropped further last week: less than 3,000, -25% compared to the previous week. Even worse is the trend of pediatric vaccinations which have collapsed and dropped by 50% compared to the previous week and we have a coverage of less than 40% in the age group 5-11 years. Still too little to prevent the virus from circulating. There are still 7 million Italians who have not yet vaccinated.
The decline in vaccine protection against infection
The vaccine continues to be protective against hospitalization and serious illnessalso against Omicron 2. Indeed according to the latest report of the UK Health Security Agency related to the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing the symptoms of Covid disease show that vaccines up to the ninth week they even guarantee higher protection against BA.2. A study of 21 hospitals in the United States confirms 86% protection against hospitalization with three doses of the vaccine.
However, numerous studies underline the decline in vaccine protection against infection which varies between 44% and 72%. The latest cited by Burioni about Cornell University students concluded that the protection against infection of three doses of the vaccine stops at52%. Without vaccination we would have twice as many cases and vaccination hinders the spread of the virus, says Burioni. But in the meantime the infections are growing, even the vaccinated are infected and can show symptoms even if in the vast majority of cases they will not go to hospital. After more than two years of pandemic, the abandonment of masks indoors seems a utopia and the controlled mechanical ventilation of the rooms, which could mitigate the spread of the virus, has never been seriously considered.
March 14, 2022 (change March 14, 2022 | 15:02)
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