On Sunday 21 general elections were held in Chile to choose the President of the Republic, representatives to the National Congress and Regional Councilors. From seven candidates for the first magistracy, the candidate of the radical right, José Antonio Kast, and the standard-bearer of the left-wing I Approve Dignity pact, Gabriel Boric, managed to pass to the second round. Given that in both candidacies the vote reached was below 30%, obtaining 27.9% and 25.8% respectively, a competitive and uncertain scenario is configured for both. Kast will be able to resort to the vote of Sebastián Sichel, the center-right candidate who obtained 12.7%, while Boric will try to attract that of Yasna Provoste, the candidate of the center-left who reached a meager 11.6%.
Given the limited margin that exists to ensure victory in the second round, in a country where voluntary voting rules, a first question is whether Kast or Boric will be able to attract voters who did not go to the polls and who have not participated in any of the elections. the elections carried out since December 2017. The second question is whether any of them will have the support of the voters who favored Franco Parisi, who obtained 12.8% of the votes, placing himself in third place. Parisi’s candidacy was characterized by the deployment of an anti-party discourse and criticism of the political class. His career has been that of a outsider that ventures into the presidential race to change politics and promote a management style away from the influence of parties and professional politicians. Due to his profile, it is estimated that a part of Parisi’s voters could lean towards Kast’s candidacy, given that the latter has also made use of anti-political and anti-party rhetoric, along with expressing his rejection of the constituent process currently underway. It could also happen that the voters who supported Parisi do not participate in the second round that will take place on December 19.
On the other hand, the recent election confirmed other trends registered in public opinion studies and in all elections held since December 2017. First, a low turnout, which reached 47.3%. The plebiscite of October 25, 2020, which began the constituent process, registered a participation of 50.9% and the “mega-election” of conventional constituents, governors and municipalities, held on May 15 and 16 of this year, it was only 41.5%. Added to this is the increased fragmentation of the party system. It is a phenomenon that had been taking place since the binomial system came into force, but which increases with the implementation of the proportional electoral system, in the 2017 elections. In the recent election, 21 parties achieved quotas in the Chamber of Deputies – for a total of 155 seats, which will be distributed in six political blocs ranging from the left to the most extreme right. No block has a majority, which will make negotiations and legislative management more complex. Whichever candidate wins the presidency, Kast or Boric, will lack a majority and will have to face an adverse National Congress. Third, it is possible to configure a new scenario in which various parties with parliamentary representation, both traditional and emerging, coexist. None of the traditional parties is left without representation in the National Congress, to the point that some increase the number of deputies or senators. Therefore, it can be seen that the crisis of the party system affects both the traditional and emerging parties. In recent years, it has even been the emerging parties that have most frequently faced internal ruptures, have disappeared, or merged with others.
It is evident that the low level of voting obtained by the candidates Kast and Boric in the elections of last Sunday the 21st pose great challenges, some of which go beyond the second round. In the immediate term, both will have to conquer the average voter. Likewise, either of the two candidates will require a majority and manage to maintain it once in government. Whoever is elected will have to face an adverse National Congress, which will force them to establish new channels of negotiation with parties and blocs distant from the ruling coalition. Finally, the main challenge will be to ensure the success of the constituent process, maintaining the autonomy of the Constitutional Convention. It is here where the great difference between Kast and Boric is noticed, since if the former prevails there are more risks that a conflict will be generated between powers of the State, or that an attempt will be made to avoid the approval of the New Constitution.
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