The Russian government formally recognized the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, two Ukrainian provinces that for years have been a source of dispute between the two countries’ militias. This recognition means that the Russian government is giving itself permission to intervene to protect the breakaway regions.
As worrying as the act itself was the speech that Vladimir Putin made to announce it to the world. Myself I wrote an article which, in one sentence, suggests that Putin was acting like a rational actor. I regret writing this. If the grandiose and angry speech was spoken with sincerity, it is because Putin believes in his own propaganda and is now an unpredictable entity who is likely to lead his country and other countries to disaster.
It is true that there can also be a lot of dissimulation in speech. But who followed Putin’s meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron suggests that Macron was subjected to six hours of the same angry speech, being unable to get Putin to comply with what Europeans see as guarantees of peace: the Minsk accords, the withdrawal of Russian troops and a host of other measures, including diplomatic talks on long-term security arrangements on the continent.
The speech continues the entire Russian post-Cold War litany, that is, the unfulfilled promises not to expand NATO. “They try to convince us that NATO is a defensive and peaceful alliance, saying that it does not threaten Russia. Again they propose that we believe their words,” Putin said. Worse than that, he suggested that NATO enlargement would act “as a catapult for an attack”.
Putin questioned Ukraine’s own legitimacy as a nation, saying the country is a product of the Soviet Union:
“As a result of Bolshevik policy, Soviet Ukraine emerged, which even today may well be called ‘Vladimir Ilyich Lenin’s Ukraine’. He is the creator and architect of the country. This is in documents. (…) And now the descendants destroy the monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. And they call it decommunization. Do you really want decommunization? That’s great. But it is unnecessary, as they say, to stop halfway. we are ready to show what the decommunization of Ukraine really means”.
This is part of his argument that “Ukraine has never had a tradition of being a genuine state”. Yes, it is true that Ukraine’s existence as an independent state is recent, but the Ruthenians have occupied eastern Ukraine for centuries and this occupation has made them distinct members of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Nations – peoples – do emerge with a historical consciousness and a coherent narrative out of the events Putin describes. But it is not for me to debate Putin.
Putin said the US-suggested sanctions would likely be used against Russia under any pretext, regardless of what happens in Ukraine. What’s worse is that he made reference to Ukrainians who would be fomenting violence against Russia’s allies in Ukraine and, thus, alienating the two countries. Putin said these men should be tried.
“I want to say clearly and directly that in the current situation, with our proposals for a frank dialogue on fundamental issues remaining unanswered by the United States and NATO, and with the level of threat to our country increasing exponentially, Russia has every right to retaliate with measures that guarantee their safety. And that is exactly what we will do,” Putin said.
This speech serves to question Putin’s sanity. One wonders if his confidence in himself and his regime is that firm.
With the West only contemplating the possibility of sanctions and with no other ideas for an escalation in tensions, it seems to me that the talk phase is over and that the crisis will now be resolved through action. Anyone who tells you how this is going to happen is a fool. Now is the time for nations like Poland to come up with ideas for how Europe can keep its own backyard safe. Meanwhile, we watch and pray for our Ukrainian friends.
Michael Brendan Dougherty is a senior writer at National Review.
© 2022 National Review. Published with permission. original in english
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