The long cycle of victories of the new left in Latin America was shaken on Sunday night in Chile, precisely the country that at the end of last year gave a new impetus to that axis with the triumph of Gabriel Boric. In June, Gustavo Petro followed him in Colombia, the first clearly progressive president in his history, and both consolidated a trend that, since 2018, decided presidents from Argentina to Mexico, passing through Honduras, Bolivia and, with many more nuances, Peru. The resounding rejection of the constitutional proposal that was going to bury the fundamental law of the dictator Augusto Pinochet is the first blow suffered by this movement. However, to understand the scope of what happened and its possible repercussions, it is convenient to contemplate the panoramic photo instead of looking at the detail.
In the first place, Chileans did not endorse the current Constitution. The plebiscite called in 2020 to channel social unrest and close a stage of protests made it clear that the vast majority of the population, 78%, wants to turn the page and give themselves other rules of coexistence. On Sunday they did not vote against that option. They rejected a specific text that did not convince the right, but also a good part of the center-left. Second, the comparison between the result of the referendum and the great support that Boric received at the polls is also not enough to explain the political climate in the country. In other words, it is not an amendment to the entire government project, which has barely been in power for six months, although it is a warning that the president understood when announcing that he will transfer the new constituent process to Congress.
Petro was the first regional leader of the left to speak out. He did so in abrupt terms at first, writing in a tweet that read: “Pinochet revived.” He then added that “only if democratic and social forces unite, will it be possible to leave behind a past that stains all of Latin America.” And the message is basically a nod to broad coalitions and great agreements, that is, just the path that Boric must now take to unblock a new Constitution.
Another factor that cannot be overlooked is the effects of Sunday’s loss on the regional board. The constitutional plebiscite was held less than a month before the presidential elections in Brazil. That appointment is decisive not only for the balance of the entire continent, but also to measure the thrust of progressive movements in Latin America. However, the dynamics operating in that country have shown signs of being different. Former President Lula da Silva is the big favorite, according to all the polls, against the current president, the far-right Jair Bolsonaro.
The weakest link in this coalition is Pedro Castillo, the president of Peru. The school teacher won last year’s elections in which he ran as a left-wing candidate, but many of his policies resemble those of the extreme right. His government lives in improvisation and lack of control. The rest of the rulers of the region do not want to assimilate with him. A week ago they wrote a letter in defense of Vice President Cristina Fernández for the judicial process opened against her, which they consider unfair. Castillo did not appear among the signatories, they left him aside. Petro visited Lima last week and had a private meeting with him for just over an hour, but the Colombian president did not announce it on social networks and was not particularly enthusiastic. There was no press conference and nothing was reported about what they talked about. Peru has made it known to its neighbors that it is not comfortable with this secondary role.
Petro has experienced the referendum in Chile as his own defeat, perhaps unnecessarily. His forceful words in which he takes the ghost of Pinochet out for a walk have bothered some local leaders. “President Gustavo Petro”, wrote Senator Andrés Celis Montt, “offends the Chilean people who made a democratic decision that must be respected. Given the baseness of his words, I request a formal claim from the Foreign Ministry to Colombia. Deeply ignorant meddling and disrespect should not be allowed.” Boric himself was more moderate than Petro, who has not stopped to think that the Chileans did want to modify the Constitution, as voted two years ago or as Boric’s election, but not in the way it was drafted.
Yes, there are deep tensions in Argentina, where Fernández de Kirchner suffered last week the attack of a man who tried to assassinate her with a pistol, an act of unprecedented gravity that was forcefully repudiated by all parties, with the exception of extremist sectors. fringes who subscribed to the conspiracy theory. But nothing is related to what happened in Chile or the general political climate. In Mexico, on the other hand, the Fourth Transformation of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has no rivals at the polls and the most relevant debate with a view to the 2024 elections is that of the internal succession of the president. The defeat of the new Constitution of Chile is a setback for the left, but at the moment there are no signs that point to an ebb or the beginning of a change of cycle.
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