With the confirmed lists and the campaign for STEP 2021 officially launched, the questions fall one after the other: how do the main forces start for this new electoral fight? How many votes will the rift between the Front of All Y Together for Change? How will the opposition inmates impact the two Buenos Aires? ¿Florencio Randazzo Y José Luis Espert / Javier Milei can they be “the” surprise? To try to begin to clarify these questions, or at least add data for the debate, Clarion analyze the latest 11 polls voting intention in the three key scenarios: Nation, Province and City.
Nation: advantage (slight) for the ruling party
Beyond politicians and specialists suggest that the midterm legislative elections are actually 24 simultaneous provincial elections and not a single national one, there will undoubtedly be a reading in this sense, especially due to the volume that the crack had in 2019.
And even when this last parameter (48 to 40 for the Front of All), is not the most accurate to compare, because it was a presidential one, it will be a point of reference.
Today, no national survey raises neither that difference nor those levels of polarization -close to 90 points-, basically and logically because there are still many undecided. About 10 days ago, Clarín published a special report ahead of the September 12 primaries and there you could already see a dispersion of figures, with a (slight) advantage for the ruling party.
Candidates of the Frente de Todos in Escobar, along with Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner. Presidency photo
Out of five surveys at the country level, in two the ruling party prevailed, in two there was a technical tie and in one it was Together for Change at the top.
Now, this newspaper analyzed three subsequent polls, and somehow the phenomenon repeats itself: in two points the FdT and in one JxC. In all three cases, the gaps are small, just above the margin of error.
Real Time Data, a firm that makes daily update measurements and has clients in the country and abroad, grants it four points in favor of the ruling party: 31 to 27, with almost 20 undecided, plus 8% for liberals and 6% for non-K Peronism.
Oh Panel, a consulting firm that works more for the business world but also measures electoral scenarios, released a 29 to 24 for the alliance of the Fernández, with more than 30% of “does not know / does not answer”.
Y Jorge Giacobbe, one of the best known analysts, due to his presence in the media, is the the only one that predicted a favorable national scenario for Juntos por el Cambio: 33.8% to 27.9%, with more than 20 undecided. But with no less detail: when it projects the “don’t know”, there is an almost total parity, with the FdT 6 tenths above: 35.8% to 35.2%.
Will they hit you this time? The bulk of pollsters come from a national background to oblivion: none of them hit the huge victory of the FdT in the PASO nor the Macrista comeback for the general.
Province: (wide) dispersion in forecasts
The Buenos Aires province it is (politically and statistically) the mother of all battles. There close to 40% of the entire electorate vote national and is the district that renews the most seats of deputies: 35 out of 127. It is also the place where pollsters are showing the most diverse numbers.
The antecedents for Kirchnerism are complex: in Buenos Aires land it lost the last three intermediate legislative sessions (2009, 2013 and 2017) and – paradoxically – the gap it achieved in 2019 – around 15 points – leaves a very high bar. A narrow victory could even be celebrated by the opposition.
Diego Santilli, with Graciela Ocaña, Juan López, Marcela Campagnoli and Gerardo Milman, all part of the Buenos Aires JxC list.
Clarion these days he accessed three measurements from Buenos Aires. One from Giacobbe, one from Observatory of Psychology (OPSA) of the UBA and a third of CB Public Opinion Consultant, a firm with origins in Córdoba that surveys the entire country.
All three, in addition to the general numbers per space, somehow measured the PASS of JxC between Diego Santilli (PRO) and Facundo Manes (UCR), perhaps the most captivating inmate of all.
A general level, CB give you a advantage of between 5 and 6 points in Front of All: 35.8% to 30.1% when they ask for space, 35.7% to 30.4% when the JxC variant is Santilli and 34.2% to 29.5% when the option becomes Manes.
CB measures a fourth stage, where he puts Santilli and Manes competing in the PASO against the rest of the forces, and there the Buenos Aires deputy chief leads the neuroscientist by 18.2% to 14.8%.
From the rest of the forces, Randazzo’s Peronism no K is third in all the proposals, with between 7.8% and 10.5%; then the Espert Liberals, with between 2.6% and 5%; and the left below, around 3 points.
With the Buenos Aires surveys of Giacobbe Y OPSA a very striking fact is repeated: starting, with more than 20% undecided, they give it a 10 point advantage to Together for Change: 36.6% to 26.6% the media analyst and 35% to 25% the work linked to the UBA.
But when both project undecided, the ruling party grows and there is an almost equal forecast: 38.4% to 37.5% according to Giacobbe and 41% to 40% according to OPSA, always with JxC at the top.
These two consulting firms also evaluated the internal between Santilli and Manes and once again the macrista / peronist was better off than the radical: OPSA faces them hand in hand and they finish 55% to 45%: while Giacobbe mixes them with other pre-candidates and they add up to 19.3% and 15.4% respectively.
In the report two months from PASO, Clarín had published nine forecasts in the Province: six gave up to the FdT, two to JxC and one tied. If the three new ones are added, the great majority puts the ruling party ahead.
City: (wide) advantage for Together for Change
Although CABA became the fourth district with the most voters in the country just a few years ago (below the provinces of Buenos Aires, Córdoba and Santa Fe), it is still the second that most deputies renew (13 this time) and also, the one that attracts the most attention behind the Buenos Aires battle.
Perhaps because of this combination of factors, in recent days five surveys with electoral numbers from Buenos Aires. With a coincidence: here there would be a clear winner, which would be, as for more than a decade, PRO / Cambiemos / Juntos por el Cambio.
María Eugenia Vidal, this weekend when she signed her candidacy. It is a favorite for the PASO.
The Buenos Aires studies accessed by this newspaper were among those mentioned Giacobbe, OPSA and Real Time Data, plus GyC and CEOP, the latter well known for being one of the consulting firms that works for the national government.
In this case, the floor from which Together for Change leaves you with a complex challenge: it comes from getting between 17 and 20 points from the Frente de Todos in 2019 (for the presidential and for the head of government); and renews 10 of the 13 deputies, because for this election, Cambiemos and Martín Lousteau’s radicals are going together, who were separated in 2017. To retain that ten places, the force led by Horacio Rodríguez Larreta would need to approach 60%, today unthinkable.
Most of the polls – including the four that Clarín published two months before the PASO – give Together for the Change an advantage of between 10 and 15 points. Except for the CEOP survey, which predicts a gap of less than 5 points when asking for space.
At the other end, when GyC includes Maria Eugenia Vidal Y Ricardo Lopez Murphy against Leandro santoro, the two representatives of JxC add 47 points (36 her and 11 him) against only 20 of the applicant of the FdT (27 of gap). When you measure them Giacobbe, on the other hand, the former governor reaches 27.5%, against 14% for López Murphy and interesting 25.5% for Santoro.
At a lower level, the one who measures very well in CABA is the liberal Javier Milei, which ranges between 8% and 12%. The left, with Myriam bregman or Luis Zamora, it remains with between 1.5% and 4%.