Ukraine began the defense of its territory against the Russian attack, orchestrated on February 24 and for which it used its own Soviet-made weapons. Nevertheless, Moscow consumed those weapons in a few months and almost seven months into the war it was forced to withdraw from various cities on account ofPrimarily from arms and ammunition shipments from the US, Canadian, and European Union (EU) governments.
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And it is that without his help, the Russians would already be in kyiv. The Ukrainians are now advancing towards the territories they lost in 2014 and are even targeting the Crimean peninsula, occupied by Russia eight years ago.
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Weapons are essential, but Ukraine had, especially in recent months, another type of help that, according to NATO sources, is being essential in the Ukrainian military successes and the withdrawal of the Russians.
These sources explain that the Europeans, but especially the United States, have placed at the disposal of the Ukrainian military high command intelligence and aerial and satellite surveillance systems enough for the Ukrainian military to have at all times a real picture of what is happening on the ground. The Russians do not have that capability, which is giving Ukraine a military advantage.
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the ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, he recognized during the visit to kyiv of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on September 8: “I would not have been able to recover those territories without the help of the United States.” This recovery of territories already adds up to more than 6,000 square kilometers in a few days, especially around Kharkov, the second Ukrainian city. The Ukrainian progression continued at that pace this week.
Ukraine received artillery, ammunition, anti-ship missiles, anti-aircraft weapons, armored personnel carriers, personal weapons, the whole panoply. Between the United States and the Europeans they will have sent more than 25,000 million euros in weapons by the end of the year.
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War is expensive. One of the weapons that turned the tide on the ground was long-distance artillery. American Himars, and similar British, French, Norwegian and British models made it possible for Ukrainian troops to hit the Russians with artillery without exposing themselves. They reach 80 kilometers. But in addition to weapons comes Western intelligence and control of the skies.
NATO spy planes fly over the Black Sea continuously. There they have access to electronic and magnetic data of the Russian forces. These data, together with those obtained from Western surveillance satellites, are made available to the Ukrainians, who can thus see what is happening on the ground in almost real time.
Atlantic Alliance sources say that there has never been an operation so discreet and of such size since the end of the Cold War and that for now is not bothered by the Russians. Can’t Russia go after those planes over the Black Sea? To that question, the sources believe that it is not clear that Russia can and that even if it could attack planes that are not over its territory, it would be an act of war, a direct attack on NATO.
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Help goes further. According to the newspaper on Tuesday New York Times, US military would have prepared the military counterattack with the Ukrainian commanders. NATO sources do not confirm this information, but assure that there are no western soldiers on the ground and that help would in any case be from abroad. The American newspaper explains that the commanders of their country designed lines of attack that the Ukrainians later adapted.
Despite these advances in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday refused to change his strategy on the battlefield. “The special military operation plan does not require any changes,” he told a news conference after the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in the historic Uzbek city of Samarkand.
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He recalled that Russia does not fight “with the entire Army” and “only with a part”, which includes professional soldiers. “We’re not in a hurry about it,” she said. As for the “active Ukrainian counteroffensive,” he assured: “Well, we’ll see how it develops, what it ends up with.”
What’s next?
The truth is that while Washington is dedicated to the military, European diplomacy is already looking at the post-war period. The Europeans have no intention of admitting Ukraine as a NATO member state, but they do want the country to feel safe from Russia.
A group of experts led by the former Danish Prime Minister and former Secretary General of the Alliance, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, delivered a report to Zelensky on Tuesday in which they propose a security pact that would leave Ukraine outside the Atlantic Alliance but with some defense guarantees. Among the authors of the report is also Andrei Yermak, head of the Ukrainian Presidential Administration, one of the most influential men in Zelensky’s entourage.
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The report proposes that a group of guarantor countries — the United States, the United Kingdom, Turkey, France, Germany and Poland — commit to arming Ukraine to the point where the country’s military might is sufficient to deter Russia from another attack.
The Baltic countries, the Scandinavian countries and Ukraine’s neighbors in central Europe would also enter as guarantors on a voluntary basis. The pact would be inspired by the security agreements between the United States and Israelwhich ensure Tel Aviv military superiority over its Arab neighbors.
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Outside of NATO, kyiv will not come under the northwestern security umbrella, but the goal is “to ensure that Ukraine is never again invaded.” If Russia were to attack again, Ukraine would have, thanks to the agreement, the ability to respond militarily more quickly and forcefully.
The report explains that the plan carries conditions. The main one, “a sustained investment effort over several decades in the Ukrainian defense industry, arms transfers, intelligence assistance that lasts over time, intensive training missions and joint maneuvers with Western armies under Union control. European and NATO.
The report even points out that Ukraine could sign “an agreement or series of agreements with countries that produce anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense equipment to equip themselves with modern and effective defense systems.” It would be a transfer of military technology that Western governments have not yet accepted. That would allow Ukraine to protect its airspace.
The pact would take the form of a strategic partnership document signed by the guarantor countries and Ukraine
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The countries that agree to be “guarantors” would also commit to increasing their financial aid and investments in Ukraine to strengthen its defense industry and rebuild the country.
And they would also sign “export arms and proceed to technology transfers” military.
Rasmussen’s report points out that “the pact would take the form of a strategic partnership document signed by the guarantor countries and by Ukraine” and that these guarantees would be “compulsory, based on bilateral treaties” between each guarantor country and Ukraine.
In 1994, the United States, Russia and the United Kingdom agreed to guarantee Ukraine’s security in exchange for kyiv sending Russia the nuclear arsenal it had when the Soviet Union fell apart. Ukraine complied and transferred the nuclear weapons to Russia. When Moscow ordered the attack, neither the United States nor the United Kingdom came to its defense..
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Rasmussen believes that this pact would be different because it would be ratified as a resolution of the United Nations General Assembly. The plan ensures that military assistance, in case Ukraine is attacked, must arrive within a maximum period of 72 hours, three days.
IDAFE MARTIN PEREZ
FOR THE TIME
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