The International Energy Agency (IEA) presented three scenarios for the development of events in the international oil market. This is stated in the annual forecast of the World Energy Outlook 2021.
“For the first time, each of the scenarios considered in the World Energy Outlook ultimately shows a decline in global oil demand, although the timing and severity of the decline vary greatly,” the report says. document…
Thus, the IEA proposed three possible scenarios for the development of events: the first takes into account the existing climate policies (The Stated Policies Scenario, STEPS); the second assumes that all commitments announced by governments will be met on time (The Announced Pledges Scenario, APS); the third is based on achieving carbon neutrality in energy by 2050 (The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, NZE).
In STEPS, global oil demand peaks at 104 million bpd in 2030 and then gradually declines over the next 20 years. In this case, the cost of one barrel of oil will be from $ 60 to $ 90 per barrel.
In the second scenario, the maximum demand of 97 million bpd will be reached in the second half of this decade.
Under this scenario, the price of a barrel of oil will be $ 67 by 2030, and $ 64 by 2050.
According to the third scenario, it is assumed that the peak demand for oil is already behind us, by 2030 it will fall to 72 million bpd.
In this case, the oil price will fall to $ 36 and $ 24 per barrel.
Earlier, on October 5, Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at IAC Alpari, told Izvestia that an explosive rise in prices is now being observed on the oil market, which cannot last long. A tipping point is about to occur, she said.
On the same day, the price of Brent oil on the ICE exchange broke the $ 83 per barrel mark for the first time since October 10, 2018.
In turn, the cost November futures for WTI crude oil increased by 2.78% to $ 79.38 per barrel. WTI exceeded the $ 79 mark on Tuesday for the first time since November 2014.
On September 27, Vladimir Bragin, Director for Financial Markets and Macroeconomics Analysis of Alfa Capital Management Company, told Izvestia that the rise in the price of Brent oil was due to high demand and insufficient supply. The revival of the world economy is going faster than expected, which entails an increase in demand for energy, the financier said.