Despite the fact that the first stages of 2025 of the Ibex 35 were marked by the threat of registering its first negative start to the year since 2016, the Spanish selective has been able to recover the lost ground, react to the rise and end the week leaving good feelings among the bulls -technically speaking-.
Thanks to the push of the most bearish companies in 2024, such as Solaria, Acciona Energía or Acciona (which are traditionally known as the bag dogs), the Spanish index has managed to advance almost 0.50% in the first two market sessions of the year. Banking, on the other hand, is among the worst values at the beginning of 2025, with falls of between 1% and 2%. Although it is ArcelorMittal that suffers the worst decrease, of almost 4% in these two days. All in all, the Ibex has managed to close the week above the last bearish gap that the selective had left at 11,600 points.
“This behavior is a sign of strength that reinforces the possibility that the current rebound could gain greater relevance,” highlights Joan Cabrero, technical analyst and strategist at ecotrader. “For now, you can rest assured as long as the alarm is not activated.” stop which is at the November lows of the Ibex with Dividends, that is, at 39,300 points, which act as the key support to maintain confidence in a bullish scenario in the short and medium term,” the expert clarifies, while indicating that It is a level analogous to the 11,150-11,300 points on the Ibex 35.
With the exception of the British FTSE 100, The Ibex 35 has become the selective that performs best in the first two sessions of 2025, while the rest of the major indices end up negative. On the other side of the Atlantic, the consolidative tone of US stocks on the first day of the year served to continue the streak of five consecutive sessions of declines that Wall Street accumulated, although this Friday it was broken when the increases prevailed. At mid-session, the S&P 500 is up 0.45% in these first two days.
However, the S&P 500 is trading close to the levels at which it moved before Donald Trump’s electoral victory, something that if materialized would result in a much more attractive risk-return equation without the threat of excessive overbought.
“A return of the S&P 500 to the 5,500 pointswould mean a 23.6% Fibonacci adjustment of the entire previous rise that began at the 2022 lows,” says Cabrero. “At that level I would be in favor of shoot the ammunition which I hope you’ve booked since I suggested taking partial profits when the Russell 2000 hit its 2021 all-time highs, because since then, the Russell 2000 has already corrected 10% from its last peak, which I find interesting.”
Euro/dollar, beyond parity?
The trend on Wall Street, as it could not be otherwise, has been accompanied by a rebound in the dollar, traditionally conceived as a popular refuge. The Dollar Index, in fact, reached a new high in the last two years this Thursday before correcting positions slightly.
The selective that reflects the evolution of the US currency against a basket of the most traded currencies on the planet thus gives weight to the trend of the last three months of the year 2024 in which it revalued by 7.7%, its most bullish record of the decade quarterly speaking.
The rise of the dollar has favored the loss of support for the 1.035-1.04 integers in the euro/dollar crossing, which is the base of the channel that had been limiting the consolidation during recent months.
“This movement begins to give us clues that point towards a potentially bearish context in search of the 2022 minimums around $0.95 per euro and this is something that reinforces the maintenance of actions on the other side of the Atlantic in dollars,” Cabrero highlights. At the start of the year it reached $1,022.
Bad start to the year in Asia
2025 has started with solid declines in Asian markets. The main equity indexes in China began the new year with decreases that reached close to 3% at some points on the first day of 2025 and in the case of the Shenzhen stock market, they increased at the weekly close.
The slowdown in the pace of expansion in manufacturing in the month of December in the Eastern country, and the prospect of higher tariffs by the US for 2025, penalized some stock exchanges in the country that stood out among the rest of the selective ones in the region . In fact, The weakness of manufacturing production data has led the CSI 300 to accumulate declines of 4% in the first two days of 2025.
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